A regulated gas utility with solid operating margins and a long-running dividend faces near-term headwinds from negative free cash flow, inconsistent earnings delivery, and unfavorable risk/reward geometry at current prices; the longer-term uptrend remains intact but the setup lacks the technical and fundamental confirmation needed for a new position.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Free Cash Flow Drag→Stable
- Momentum Below Entry Threshold→Stable
- Earnings Execution Inconsistency↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio (CPK) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $141.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.4% away).
Chesapeake Utilities distributes natural gas, electricity, and propane across Delaware, Maryland, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Ohio through Regulated and Unregulated Energy segments. The Regulated Energy segment generated $119.7 million in net income in 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $141.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio
About Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio
Chesapeake Utilities served over 376,000 average regulated distribution customers in 2025 — approximately 228,949 in Florida natural gas, 114,245 on the Delmarva Peninsula, and 33,516 in Florida electric — alongside natural gas transmission through Eastern Shore (320,411 Dts/d capacity, Delaware/Maryland/Pennsylvania) and Peninsula Pipeline (1,087,171 Dts/d, Florida). The Regulated Energy segment generated $119.7 million in net income, with operations regulated by the Florida PSC, Delaware PSC, Maryland PSC, and FERC.
Chesapeake Utilities earns regulated distribution revenue at rates approved by state public service commissions. The Florida PSC allows FPU natural gas a 10.25% return on equity with a rate base of $453.7 million and FCG a 9.50% return on equity with a rate base of $487.3 million; both operations recover fuel cost changes through PSC-approved pass-through mechanisms rather than base rate filings. Eastern Shore's FERC-regulated transmission rates were last set in an order effective August 2017. The Unregulated Energy segment includes propane operations and Marlin Gas Services' compressed natural gas transport. FPU natural gas and Eight Flags rely on asset management agreements with Emera Energy Services, Inc. — contracts expiring November 2030 — to optimize transportation capacity. The Ohio subsidiary Aspire Energy Express serves one customer, Guernsey Power Station, as its sole supplier, generating $1.5 million in transmission revenue. Competition for industrial customers comes from alternative fuels; residential and commercial customers face no direct competing distributor within Chesapeake Utilities' franchise territories.
Show full overview
Florida PSC regulatory outcomes shape a substantial portion of Chesapeake Utilities' earnings. In July 2025, the Florida PSC approved a permanent base rate increase of approximately $8.6 million annually for FPU electric distribution, resolving a protested initial March 2025 order through settlement. FCG — serving approximately 125,000 customers across eight Florida counties with a rate base of $487.3 million — provided notice to the Florida PSC in February 2026 of its intent to file a rate case petition based on a 2027 projected test year, an outcome subject to Florida PSC review and approval. The Delaware natural gas division received a $6.1 million annual revenue increase approved by the Delaware PSC in June 2025, effective March 2025.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio
Latest news
- NEWS Chesapeake Utilities to Host its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast on November 6, 2026 - TradingVi — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CPK Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 193.31M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays cuts target for Chesapeake Utilities stock to USD 134 - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Pipeline Filing Might Change The Case For Investing In Chesapeake Utilities Stock (CPK) - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Pipeline Filing Might Change The Case For Investing In Chesapeake Utilities Stock (CPK) - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMregulatoryFlorida PSC regulated operations10-K Item 1: 'FCG provided notice to the Florida PSC of its intent to file a petition ... Florida Electric division filed a petition with the Florida PSC'
- LOWCustomerGuernsey Power Station10-K Item 1: 'Our transmission business in Ohio, Aspire Energy Express, services one customer, Guernsey Power Station, to which it is the sole supplier.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-24Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Beth W. Cooper announced retirement effective June 30, 2026 after over 36 years with the company. Jeffrey S. Sylvester, current COO and Senior Vice President, named as successor CFO effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $141.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $136.06. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $128.11 reached (−9.6% from $141.70); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $136.06. Stop-loss: $136.06.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.4% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate CPK, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $147.
What does Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio do?Chesapeake Utilities distributes natural gas, electricity, and propane across Delaware, Maryland, Florida, North...
Chesapeake Utilities distributes natural gas, electricity, and propane across Delaware, Maryland, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Ohio through Regulated and Unregulated Energy segments. The Regulated Energy segment generated $119.7 million in net income in 2025 through rates set by state PSCs and FERC; the November 2023 acquisition of FCG for $922.8 million added approximately 125,000 Florida natural gas customers.