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NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompaSell4.9·$49.38-0.52%
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Northwest Natural Holding Compa (NWN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. At $49.38, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC.

NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington, plus ~90,000 meters in Texas (SiEnergy, acquired 2025). Revenue flows from authorized cost-of-service rates; residential and commercial customers generate... Read more

$49.38+1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#11 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-13.64%
IncomeYield3.97%(5y avg 4.41%)Payout67.29%
Stop $47.10Target $50.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$57.50+16.4%6 analysts
$50.02our TP
$49.38price
$57.50mean
$61

Sell if holding. At $49.38, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%)
Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth-0.8%
Beta0.43
Dividend3.97%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV34%normal
Max Pain$60+21.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicOregon88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 88% of customers are located in Oregon and 12% are located in southwest Washington.'
  • HIGHregulatoryOPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'The NWN Gas Utility business is subject to regulation by the OPUC and WUTC.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle interstate transmission pipeline
    10-K Item 1: 'NW Natural's gas distribution system is reliant on a single, bi-directional interstate transmission pipeline'
  • HIGHCustomerPortland General Electric
    10-K Item 1: 'is dedicated solely to Portland General Electric (PGE) under a 30-year contract'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Earnings Growth
3.4
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.57Resistance $52.30

Price Targets

$47
$50
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.38, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $47.10. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the NWN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.02 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $47.10. Stop-loss: $47.10.

What are the risks of investing in NWN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NWN overvalued or undervalued?

Northwest Natural Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWN?

11 analysts cover NWN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Northwest Natural Holding Compa do?NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest...

NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington, plus ~90,000 meters in Texas (SiEnergy, acquired 2025). Revenue flows from authorized cost-of-service rates; residential and commercial customers generate ~91% of NWN Gas Utility margin. The Mist storage facility (21.6 Bcf) includes a 30-year exclusive agreement with Portland General Electric.

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