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Northwest Natural Holding Compa (NWN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. At $49.71, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission).

Northwest Natural Holding operates NW Natural, a regulated gas distribution utility with approximately 810,000 meters in Oregon (88%) and southwest Washington (12%), plus SiEnergy (~90,000 meters in Texas DFW/Houston/Austin areas acquired January 2025). Revenue is regulated by... Read more

$49.71+0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#11 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-13.98%
IncomeYield4.07%(5y avg 4.40%)Payout67.29%
Stop $46.92Target $50.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$57.50+15.7%6 analysts
$50.02our TP
$49.71price
$57.50mean
$61

Sell if holding. At $49.71, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.4Qual4.2Grw2.8Mom2.6Sent5.6Ins5.0Peer4.8Tech7.0Risk6.14.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Northwest Natural Holding Compa

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%)
Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth-0.8%
Beta0.46
Dividend4.07%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicOregon88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 88% of customers are located in Oregon and 12% are located in southwest Washington'
  • HIGHregulatoryOPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission)
    10-K Item 1: 'The NWN Gas Utility business is subject to regulation by the OPUC and WUTC. These regulatory agencies authorize rates and allow recovery mechanisms'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyPortland General Electric (North Mist storage, 30-year contract)
    10-K Item 1: 'The North Mist facility provides long-term, no-notice underground gas storage service and is dedicated solely to Portland General Electric (PGE) under a 30-year contract'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Earnings Growth
3.4
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.37Resistance $54.03

Price Targets

$47
$50
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.71, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.92. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.02 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $46.92. Stop-loss: $46.92.

What are the risks of investing in NWN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NWN overvalued or undervalued?

Northwest Natural Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWN?

10 analysts cover NWN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Northwest Natural Holding Compa do?Northwest Natural Holding operates NW Natural, a regulated gas distribution utility with approximately 810,000 meters...

Northwest Natural Holding operates NW Natural, a regulated gas distribution utility with approximately 810,000 meters in Oregon (88%) and southwest Washington (12%), plus SiEnergy (~90,000 meters in Texas DFW/Houston/Austin areas acquired January 2025). Revenue is regulated by the OPUC and WUTC; residential and commercial customers provide 91% of NW Natural margin. The company also operates Mist gas storage (21.6 Bcf total capacity).

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