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UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.Sell5.8·$105.24-0.46%
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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. At $105.24, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke network from 8 major airports (ORD, DEN, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, GUM), transporting passengers and cargo across North America and internationally across six continents. Aircraft fuel represented 21% of total 2025 operating expenses;... Read more

$105.24+12.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.80%
Stop $97.95Target $118.87(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$132.08+25.5%24 analysts
$118.87our TP
$105.24price
$132.08mean
$95
$182

Sell if holding. At $105.24, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.5
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$34.3B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn6.1%
ROE25.7%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta1.29
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierBoeing and Airbus
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company currently sources substantially all of its aircraft and many related aircraft parts from The Boeing Company ("Boeing") or Airbus S.A.S. ("Airbus").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.2
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $88.34Resistance $117.96

Price Targets

$98
$119
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $105.24, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $97.95. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the UAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.87 (+12.9% upside). Prior stop was $97.95. Stop-loss: $97.95.

What are the risks of investing in UAL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is UAL overvalued or undervalued?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UAL?

30 analysts cover UAL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $132.

What does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. do?United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke network from 8 major airports (ORD, DEN, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, GUM),...

United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke network from 8 major airports (ORD, DEN, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, GUM), transporting passengers and cargo across North America and internationally across six continents. Aircraft fuel represented 21% of total 2025 operating expenses; substantially all aircraft and engines are sourced from Boeing and Airbus.

Related stocks: LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A.) · CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) · DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.) · AAL (American Airlines Group, Inc.) · RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc)
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