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Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 14.50; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Southwest Airlines operates a domestic and near-international passenger airline serving 117 destinations across 42 U.S. states and 10 near-international countries with a fleet of 803 Boeing 737 aircraft as of December 31, 2025. Fuel and oil was the second-largest cost at... Read more

$38.30+6.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#10 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-1.99%
IncomeYield1.88%(5y avg 1.03%)Payout48.00%sustainable
Stop $35.74Target $40.73(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$45.25+18.2%23 analysts
$40.73our TP
$38.30price
$45.25mean
$30
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 14.50; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Southwest Airlines Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing
Concentration risk — Supplier: single engine supplier
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.6
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$18.7B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth12.8%
Beta1.11
Dividend1.88%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C14.50bearish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$28-26.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierBoeing
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company is currently dependent on Boeing as the sole manufacturer of the Company's aircraft'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle engine supplier
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company is currently dependent on a single engine supplier, as well as single suppliers of certain other aircraft parts and equipment'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
    C. David Cush and Gregg A. Saretsky each submitted Board resignations effective February 23, 2026. Neither departure was due to disagreement with Company operations, policies or practices. No successors named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Roa
1.3
Net Margin
1.4
Operating Margin
1.8
Current Ratio
1.9
Roe
3.4
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
5.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -46% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Volume
3.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.85Resistance $42.39

Price Targets

$36
$41
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LUV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 14.50; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.74. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LUV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.73 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $35.74. Stop-loss: $35.74.

What are the risks of investing in LUV?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing; Concentration risk — Supplier: single engine supplier; Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is LUV overvalued or undervalued?

Southwest Airlines Company trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LUV?

30 analysts cover LUV with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Southwest Airlines Company do?Southwest Airlines operates a domestic and near-international passenger airline serving 117 destinations across 42 U.S....

Southwest Airlines operates a domestic and near-international passenger airline serving 117 destinations across 42 U.S. states and 10 near-international countries with a fleet of 803 Boeing 737 aircraft as of December 31, 2025. Fuel and oil was the second-largest cost at approximately 19% of operating expenses in 2025; the company terminated its fuel hedging portfolio in Q2 2025 and introduced assigned seating and bag fees beginning January 2026.

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