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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $408.54 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving ("FSD") (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots ("Bots") (including Optimus).

$408.54+10.0% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#15 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.35%
Stop $375.82Target $444.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$411.89+0.8%41 analysts
$444.33our TP
$408.54price
$411.89mean
$123
$600

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $408.54 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Tesla, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)370.7
P/E (Fwd)161.0
Mkt Cap$1.52T
EV/EBITDA134.3
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta1.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts61

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.29bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$250-38.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Peg Ratio
2.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward P/E: 161.0xPEG: 5.90Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $364.02Resistance $453.40

Price Targets

$376
$444
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $408.54 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $375.82. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the TSLA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $444.33 (+10.0% upside). Prior stop was $375.82. Stop-loss: $375.82.

What are the risks of investing in TSLA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?

Tesla, Inc. trades at a P/E of 370.7 (forward 161.0). TrendMatrix value score: 1.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSLA?

61 analysts cover TSLA with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $412.

What does Tesla, Inc. do?We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full...

We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving ("FSD") (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots ("Bots") (including Optimus).

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