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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $370.03 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving ("FSD") (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots ("Bots") (including Optimus).

$370.03+2.9% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#13 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $344.27Target $380.97(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$414.10+11.9%41 analysts
$380.97our TP
$370.03price
$414.10mean
$123
$600

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $370.03 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)345.2
P/E (Fwd)147.0
Mkt Cap$1.40T
EV/EBITDA123.7
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta1.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts60

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$120-67.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.5
Forward Pe
1.0
Peg Ratio
2.4
Analyst Target
5.0
Forward P/E: 147.0xPEG: 5.13Expensive valuation

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.9
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $337.24Resistance $409.28

Price Targets

$344
$381
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $370.03 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $344.27. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSLA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $380.97 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $344.27. Stop-loss: $344.27.

What are the risks of investing in TSLA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?

Tesla, Inc. trades at a P/E of 345.2 (forward 147.0). TrendMatrix value score: 1.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSLA?

60 analysts cover TSLA with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $414.

What does Tesla, Inc. do?We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full...

We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving ("FSD") (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots ("Bots") (including Optimus).

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