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TJX Companies, Inc. (The) (TJX) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

We have over 5,200 stores and six branded e-commerce sites that offer a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers' (including department, specialty, and major online... Read more

$156.41+4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 12 Apparel Retail
Stop $150.67Target $162.50(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$172.17+10.1%18 analysts
$162.50our TP
$156.41price
$172.17mean
$107
$193

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.0
P/E (Fwd)27.5
Mkt Cap$173.3B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE59.1%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.73
Dividend1.23%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV40%normal
Max Pain$105-32.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $155.15Resistance $165.82

Price Targets

$151
$163
A.Upside+3.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TJX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $150.67. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TJX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $162.50 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $150.67. Stop-loss: $150.67.

What are the risks of investing in TJX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is TJX overvalued or undervalued?

TJX Companies, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 27.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TJX?

25 analysts cover TJX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $172.

What does TJX Companies, Inc. (The) do?We have over 5,200 stores and six branded e-commerce sites that offer a rapidly changing assortment of quality,...

We have over 5,200 stores and six branded e-commerce sites that offer a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers' (including department, specialty, and major online retailers) regular prices on comparable merchandise, every day.

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