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BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. Common StBuy Wait6.7·$181.68-1.56%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality travel platform with 22% net margins, consistent earnings outperformance, and an attractive PEG of 0.75 offers compelling fundamentals roughly 18% below the analyst target, but a confirmed near-term price downtrend is the key timing risk — patient buyers see approximately 3-to-1 risk/reward if momentum recovers.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings OutperformanceStable
  • Attractive Growth Adjusted ValuationStable
  • High Quality Margins And Balance SheetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (BKNG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Wait for pullback to $171.23. At $181.68 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $171.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Our mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. We aim to provide consumers with a best-in-class experience with tailored planning, payment, language, and other options seamlessly connecting them with our travel service provider partners. We offer these... Read more

$181.68+18.5% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#1 of 14 Travel Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.95%
IncomeYield0.87%Payout20.73%sustainable
Entry $171.23(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $157.65Target $206.43(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$224.38+23.5%35 analysts
$206.43our TP
$181.68price
$224.38mean
$298

Wait for pullback to $171.23. At $181.68 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $171.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=consumer cyclical 2/10). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.3
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$143.0B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE
Rev Growth16.2%
Beta1.07
Dividend0.87%
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.0
Bollinger
2.5
52w Position
5.6
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Consumer Cyclical 2/10RecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $158.12Resistance $186.89

Price Targets

$158
$171
$206
A.Upside+13.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKNG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $171.23. At $181.68 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $171.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $206.43 (+13.6%), stop $157.65 (−15.2%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKNG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $206.43 (+18.5% upside). Target $206.43 (+13.6%), stop $157.65 (−15.2%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $157.65.

What are the risks of investing in BKNG?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is BKNG overvalued or undervalued?

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BKNG?

46 analysts cover BKNG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $224.

What does Booking Holdings Inc. Common St do?Our mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. We aim to provide consumers with a best-in-class...

Our mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. We aim to provide consumers with a best-in-class experience with tailored planning, payment, language, and other options seamlessly connecting them with our travel service provider partners. We offer these services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable:

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd) · ABNB (Airbnb, Inc.)
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