TPG RE Finance Trust shows a strong Piotroski F-Score and a bullish breakout setup, but a thin upside margin and a failed asymmetry gate mean the risk-reward is unfavorable enough to hold rather than add.
Thesis pillars
- Thin Upside Margin→Stable
- Strong Piotroski Margins→Stable
- Bullish Breakout Setup→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality U.S. properties, managed by an affiliate of TPG, which had $303 billion in assets under management as of December... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TRTX or VTMX: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS TPG RE Finance Trust announces Q2FY26 earnings release date - scanx.trade — scanx.trade neutral
- NEWS TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Q2 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS TPG RE Finance Trust (NYSE:TRTX) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.03 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-09-23T15:57:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductfirst mortgage loans100%10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, 99.7% of our loan commitments were floating rate, of which 100.0% were first mortgage loans.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $6.96. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $8.59 (+19.5% upside). Prior stop was $6.96. Stop-loss: $6.96.
Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover TRTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.
What does TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. do?TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first...
TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality U.S. properties, managed by an affiliate of TPG, which had $303 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025. As of that date, the company held 50 loans for investment totaling $4.3 billion in commitments and a $4.1 billion unpaid principal balance, entirely first mortgage loans, with a weighted average all-in yield of 7.1% and a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 65.7%.