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TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.Hold5.8·$8.40-0.83%
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TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., a commercial real estate finance company, originates and acquires a portfolio of commercial real estate-related assets in the United States. It engages in directly originating and selectively acquiring first mortgage loans secured by commercial real... Read more

$8.40+3.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#9 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield11.43%(5y avg 11.14%)Payout150.00%
Stop $8.10Target $8.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$10.00+19.0%6 analysts
$8.70our TP
$8.40price
$10.00mean
$11

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.1
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$649M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn48.1%
ROE6.1%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta1.46
Dividend11.43%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV104%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.06Resistance $8.54

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRTX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $8.70 (+3.6%), stop $8.10 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.70 (+3.6% upside). Target $8.70 (+3.6%), stop $8.10 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $8.10.

What are the risks of investing in TRTX?

Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

Is TRTX overvalued or undervalued?

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TRTX?

12 analysts cover TRTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.

What does TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. do?TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., a commercial real estate finance company, originates and acquires a portfolio of commercial...

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., a commercial real estate finance company, originates and acquires a portfolio of commercial real estate-related assets in the United States. It engages in directly originating and selectively acquiring first mortgage loans secured by commercial real estate properties; and invests in other commercial real estate-related debt instruments, including subordinate mortgage interests, mezzanine loans, secured real estate securities, note financing, preferred equity, and miscellaneous debt instruments. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in New York, New York.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · ORC (Orchid Island Capital, Inc.) · ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.)
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