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PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr (PMT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The... Read more

$10.43+6.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#12 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield15.36%(5y avg 12.10%)Payout137.93%
Stop $9.97Target $11.12(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$12.79+22.6%7 analysts
$11.12our TP
$10.43price
$12.79mean
$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish. Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.4Qual5.8Grw4.8Mom2.6Sent6.0Ins5.0Peer4.0Tech7.8Risk4.95.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.0
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$909M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn21.1%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth-24.1%
Beta1.18
Dividend15.36%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
5.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
20 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.28Resistance $12.37

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PMT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish. Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $11.12 (+6.6%), stop $9.97 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.12 (+6.7% upside). Target $11.12 (+6.6%), stop $9.97 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $9.97.

What are the risks of investing in PMT?

Market cap $0.91B below $1B minimum.

Is PMT overvalued or undervalued?

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PMT?

13 analysts cover PMT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $13.

What does PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr do?PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in...

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The Credit Sensitive Strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements and subordinate and credit-linked mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies segment engages in investing in mortgage servicing rights, agency and senior non-agency MBS, and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), as well as interest rate hedging activities. The Correspondent Production segment is involved in purchasing, pooling, and reselling newly originated prime credit quality loans directly or in the form of MBS. The company primarily sells its loans to government-sponsored enterprises. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It is not subject to U.S. federal income tax on the REIT taxable income it distributes to its shareholders. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.

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