Apollo Commercial Real Estate's momentum has stalled below the minimum threshold, estimates are declining and the most recent quarter missed by 24%, put/call options skew sits at 1.46-to-1 bearish, and only 1.9% upside remains to the near-term resistance target — a setup that does not reward entering a new position at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Stalled Below Threshold→Stable
- Estimates Declining Large Recent Miss↓Deteriorating
- Unfavorable Risk Reward Near Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Wait for pullback to $6.17. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $6.31. Engine's entry $6.17 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 7.8%.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and... Read more
Wait for pullback to $6.17. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $6.31. Engine's entry $6.17 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 7.8%. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Deep value: 63% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Latest news
- NEWS Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Hits New 12-Month Low - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Managers' Transactions - Ari Isomäki - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Ari Emanuel Backs Paramount-WBD Deal In WSJ Op-Ed, Blasts States’ Antitrust Lawsuit As “Trash” - deadline.com — deadline.com positive
- NEWS Principal Financial Group Inc. Decreases Holdings in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance $ARI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Empyrean Capital Partners LP Purchases New Stake in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance $ARI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartythe Manager (Apollo)10-K Item 1: 'We have no employees and are managed by the Manager pursuant to the management agreement between the Manager and us'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWDirector Scott S. Prince informed the company on May 14, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the next annual meeting; explicitly not the result of any dispute with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.01MEDIUMOn April 24, 2026, the company entered an Amended and Restated Management Agreement with the Manager, changing the base management fee from a flat 1.5% of stockholders' equity to an ROE-linked 0.75%/1.5% structure paid in stock rather than cash.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUMThe new Amended and Restated Management Agreement superseded and replaced the existing Management Agreement dated September 23, 2009 between the company and the Manager.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $6.17. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $6.31. Engine's entry $6.17 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 7.8%. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Deep value: 63% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $6.80 (+7.8%), stop $5.93 (−6.4%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $6.80 (+7.8% upside). Target $6.80 (+7.8%), stop $5.93 (−6.4%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $5.93.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 7.8%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 28.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and European properties. As of December 31, 2025 it held an approximately $8.7 billion mortgage loan portfolio financed with $6.3 billion of secured debt, $746.3 million of term loans, and $500.0 million of senior secured notes, and in January 2026 it agreed to sell substantially all of that portfolio to Apollo affiliate A