Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARI stock price target?

Take-profit $10.97 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $10.46.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ARI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Target reached (-6.9% upside); Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is ARI overvalued or undervalued?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ARI?

9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 3 days ago (May 18, 2026, 12:41 AM ET)

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

$10.84+1.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#16 of 17 REIT - Mortgage

QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield9.23%(5y avg 11.77%)Payout123.46%

Stop $10.46Target $10.97(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1

Analyst target$11.60+7.0%5 analysts

$10.97our TP

$10.84price

$11.60mean

$12

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.84 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F

Latest news

Full Transcript: Apollo Comml Real Est Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 neutral
Apollo Comml Real Est Q1 Adj. EPS $0.22 Misses $0.27 Estimate, Sales $36.067M Miss $45.500M Estimate — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 negative
Earnings Scheduled For April 28, 2026 — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (3.6% away)

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4

P/E (Fwd)14.8

Mkt Cap$1.4B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn47.3%

ROE6.9%

Rev Growth0.2%

Beta1.42

Dividend9.23%

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.315%0.79

Quality6.415%0.96

Growth2.215%0.33

Momentum4.210%0.42

Sentiment5.910%0.59

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.110%0.41

Technical Setup8.05%0.40

Risk Profile5.55%0.28

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)4.88

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

2.0

Revenue Growth

2.5

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

41 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.62Resistance $11.19

Price Targets

$10

$11

A.Upside+1.2%

A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.9% upside)

! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-29 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.84 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $10.46. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the ARI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.97 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $10.46. Stop-loss: $10.46.

What are the risks of investing in ARI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ARI overvalued or undervalued?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARI?

9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires,...

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.