Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARI stock price target?

Take-profit $11.02 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $10.54.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ARI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Target reached (-9.6% upside); Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is ARI overvalued or undervalued?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ARI?

9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away).

$10.94+0.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#17 of 17 REIT - Mortgage

Stop $10.54Target $11.02(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1

Analyst target$11.63+6.3%4 analysts

$11.02our TP

$10.94price

$11.63mean

$12

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (2.8% away)

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3

P/E (Fwd)12.4

Mkt Cap$1.4B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn47.3%

ROE6.9%

Rev Growth0.2%

Beta1.51

Dividend9.31%

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.50bearish

IV44%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.315%0.79

Quality6.515%0.97

Growth3.015%0.45

Momentum3.110%0.31

Sentiment6.010%0.60

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.610%0.36

Technical Setup6.15%0.30

Risk Profile4.95%0.25

Catalyst6.05%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)4.84

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth

2.5

Earnings Growth

3.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

3.2

Rsi

5.5

Ma Position

6.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

2.2

Quality Rank

3.2

Value Rank

4.0

GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

52 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.41Resistance $11.24

Price Targets

$11

A.Upside+0.7%

A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.6% upside)

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.54. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.02 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $10.54. Stop-loss: $10.54.

What are the risks of investing in ARI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ARI overvalued or undervalued?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARI?

9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires,...

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.