Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance looks very cheap at 3.5x price to operating cash flow with strong margins and a wide moat, but a $299M market cap below the investable minimum, three earnings misses in four quarters and an unreliable analyst target make it a watch-only name.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Cash Flow Discount↑Improving
- Repeated Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Manager And Size Constraints↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $8.00 vs price $2.41 — ratio 3.3×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP..
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $8.00 vs price $2.41 — ratio 3.3×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $309M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Latest news
- NEWS Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Ex-Dividend Date — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026
- NEWS Why Civeo Shares Are Trading Higher By 20%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket — benzinga Oct 30, 2026
- NEWS Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc To Go Ex-Dividend On October 30th, 2026 With 4.1 USD Dividend Per Share - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) Projected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Scratch Golf- Interviews w/ Don White & Owner Ari - GolfWRX — GolfWRX Oct 21, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:39:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartythe Manager (Apollo)10-K Item 1: 'We have no employees and are managed by the Manager pursuant to the management agreement between the Manager and us'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWDirector Scott S. Prince informed the company on May 14, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the next annual meeting; explicitly not the result of any dispute with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.01MEDIUMOn April 24, 2026, the company entered an Amended and Restated Management Agreement with the Manager, changing the base management fee from a flat 1.5% of stockholders' equity to an ROE-linked 0.75%/1.5% structure paid in stock rather than cash.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUMThe new Amended and Restated Management Agreement superseded and replaced the existing Management Agreement dated September 23, 2009 between the company and the Manager.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $8.00 vs price $2.41 — ratio 3.3×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $309M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Default target $2.77 (+14.9%), stop $2.29 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Default target: $2.77 (+14.9% upside). Default target $2.77 (+14.9%), stop $2.29 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $2.29.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $8.00 vs price $2.41 — ratio 3.3×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Market cap $309M below $400M minimum.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 3.0 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
9 analysts rate ARI, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $8.
What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and European properties. As of December 31, 2025 it held an approximately $8.7 billion mortgage loan portfolio financed with $6.3 billion of secured debt, $746.3 million of term loans, and $500.0 million of senior secured notes, and in January 2026 it agreed to sell substantially all of that portfolio to Apollo affiliate A