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Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%).

Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts under Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands) and RCI, the world's largest vacation exchange network with 3.3M members and 3,600 affiliated resorts. Revenue in 2025 was... Read more

$64.79+16.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 15 Travel Services
Stop $60.70Target $75.04(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$86.25+33.1%12 analysts
$75.04our TP
$64.79price
$86.25mean
$105

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.6
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta1.34
Dividend3.80%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$33-49.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States88%
    10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, we derived 88% of our revenues in the United States ("U.S.") and 12% internationally.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $62.58Resistance $79.49

Price Targets

$61
$75
A.Upside+15.8%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $60.70. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $75.04 (+16.0% upside). Prior stop was $60.70. Stop-loss: $60.70.

What are the risks of investing in TNL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Negative momentum.

Is TNL overvalued or undervalued?

Travel Leisure Co. trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TNL?

16 analysts cover TNL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Travel Leisure Co. do?Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts...

Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts under Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands) and RCI, the world's largest vacation exchange network with 3.3M members and 3,600 affiliated resorts. Revenue in 2025 was 46% from VOI sales, 40% from fee-for-service, and 11% from consumer financing. 88% of revenues came from the United States.

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