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Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $62.69: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts under Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands) and RCI, the world's largest vacation exchange network with 3.3M members and 3,600 affiliated resorts. Revenue in 2025 was... Read more

$62.69+19.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#6 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield13.60%
IncomeYield3.84%(5y avg 3.62%)Payout46.80%sustainable
Stop $59.40Target $74.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$86.08+37.3%12 analysts
$74.89our TP
$62.69price
$86.08mean
$105

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $62.69: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Travel Leisure Co.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta1.19
Dividend3.84%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.65bullish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States88%
    10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, we derived 88% of our revenues in the United States ("U.S.") and 12% internationally.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
6.5
GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.24Resistance $76.34

Price Targets

$59
$75
A.Upside+19.5%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts16
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$86

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $62.69: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $59.40. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.89 (+19.5% upside). Prior stop was $59.40. Stop-loss: $59.40.

What are the risks of investing in TNL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is TNL overvalued or undervalued?

Travel Leisure Co. trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TNL?

16 analysts cover TNL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Travel Leisure Co. do?Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts...

Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts under Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands) and RCI, the world's largest vacation exchange network with 3.3M members and 3,600 affiliated resorts. Revenue in 2025 was 46% from VOI sales, 40% from fee-for-service, and 11% from consumer financing. 88% of revenues came from the United States.

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