Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.61
- ▸Attractively valued
TNL · Why this verdict
Why Travel Leisure (TNL) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Travel + Leisure Co. is a high-quality vacation ownership business with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, free cash flow conversion of 225% of net income, and three consecutive earnings beats, yet the stock is overbought at an RSI of 76 and has nearly fully closed the gap to analyst price targets, leaving limited near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible rating — indicates that Travel + Leisure's balance sheet, profitability, and operational efficiency are all improving simultaneously, placing it in the top tier of financial health among consumer cyclical companies. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next two annual reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores for consumer cyclical companies can deteriorate quickly if interest rates rise or discretionary spending slows, as vacation ownership is among the first categories consumers cut in a downturn. | ||
With 88% of revenues derived from the United States, Travel + Leisure is highly exposed to a single economic environment, meaning a domestic recession or consumer sentiment shock would have an outsized impact compared to more geographically diversified peers. Bear case | Non-U.S. revenue share grows to above 15% within 12 months, reducing single-market dependence. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGeographic concentration in the U.S. vacation ownership market can also be a strength, providing operational focus and avoiding currency and political risks that come with international diversification. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 225% of net income demonstrates that earnings are substantially backed by cash, supporting both dividend payments and debt reduction without relying on accounting gains. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterVacation ownership companies can generate high near-term cash flows while accumulating consumer receivables that carry credit risk; a rise in defaults or delinquencies could impair future cash generation. | ||
Travel + Leisure has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.7%, providing evidence that management's guidance is reliable and conservative. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with the average positive surprise staying above 2%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss was by only 0.39% and the average surprise is low at 3.7%, suggesting the beat streak may reflect narrow estimate beats rather than a durable outperformance pattern. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible rating — indicates that Travel + Leisure's balance sheet, profitability, and operational efficiency are all improving simultaneously, placing it in the top tier of financial health among consumer cyclical companies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next two annual reporting cycles.
CounterPiotroski scores for consumer cyclical companies can deteriorate quickly if interest rates rise or discretionary spending slows, as vacation ownership is among the first categories consumers cut in a downturn.
With 88% of revenues derived from the United States, Travel + Leisure is highly exposed to a single economic environment, meaning a domestic recession or consumer sentiment shock would have an outsized impact compared to more geographically diversified peers.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-U.S. revenue share grows to above 15% within 12 months, reducing single-market dependence.
CounterGeographic concentration in the U.S. vacation ownership market can also be a strength, providing operational focus and avoiding currency and political risks that come with international diversification.
Free cash flow conversion of 225% of net income demonstrates that earnings are substantially backed by cash, supporting both dividend payments and debt reduction without relying on accounting gains.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four quarters.
CounterVacation ownership companies can generate high near-term cash flows while accumulating consumer receivables that carry credit risk; a rise in defaults or delinquencies could impair future cash generation.
Travel + Leisure has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.7%, providing evidence that management's guidance is reliable and conservative.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with the average positive surprise staying above 2%.
CounterThe one miss was by only 0.39% and the average surprise is low at 3.7%, suggesting the beat streak may reflect narrow estimate beats rather than a durable outperformance pattern.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 225% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,096,349 (0.046% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 2.7 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| beta | 6.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.66
Upside
+3.9%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Technical at 7.8 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Value at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.66 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in the next annual reporting period, indicating broad-based financial deterioration.
- P2Strong Free Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion drops below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Geographic Concentration Risk
Trip ifU.S. consumer confidence index falls below 85, more than 15% below recent levels, signaling a discretionary spending contraction that would disproportionately affect this company.