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EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.Sell6.2·$243.91+2.92%
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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. At $243.91, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Expedia Group operates a global online travel marketplace under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, generating $14.7 billion in total revenue for 2025. Revenue flows 70% through the merchant model, with the B2C, B2B, and trivago segments serving individual travelers,... Read more

$243.91+8.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield12.23%
IncomeYield0.74%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout14.84%sustainable
Stop $226.51Target $263.42(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$286.32+17.4%34 analysts
$263.42our TP
$243.91price
$286.32mean
$409

Sell if holding. At $243.91, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Expedia Group, Inc.

About Expedia Group, Inc.

Expedia Group generated $14.7 billion in total revenue for 2025, with the merchant model accounting for 70% of that total, the agency model for 22%, and advertising, media and other for 8%. The B2C segment — operating brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, Orbitz, Travelocity, and Wotif Group across countries around the world — drives the majority of bookings. At year-end 2025, the platform offered approximately 3.6 million lodging properties, including 2.4 million alternative accommodations through Vrbo.

Expedia Group earns the majority of its revenue by facilitating lodging, airline, and package bookings through the merchant model, collecting traveler payment in advance and remitting to suppliers after the stay or flight. The agency model, primarily used for air bookings, generates commissions and ticketing fees without the company acting as principal. The One Key loyalty program — launched in the United States in 2023, the United Kingdom in 2024, and expanded to additional markets in 2025 — spans Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo to encourage cross-brand repeat bookings. The B2B segment distributes Expedia Group's inventory through the Rapid API, white-label solutions, and the TAAP agent booking tool to corporate travel managers, airlines, and financial institutions. The trivago segment, majority-owned by Expedia Group and listed separately on Nasdaq as TRVG, earns advertising revenue by sending referrals to OTAs and travel suppliers. The 10-K names Booking.com, Airbnb, and Google as direct competitors, noting that Google has used its search market position to promote its own travel services in ways that could disintermediate Expedia Group's platform.

Show full overview

Having migrated key platform functions to Amazon Web Services, Expedia Group now depends on AWS availability for booking and customer operations — the 10-K notes AWS disruptions have occurred a number of times in the recent past and could adversely affect platform availability. The company also uses Amadeus and Sabre as its two GDS providers for airline content distribution. In April 2026, Expedia Group disclosed via Form 8-K a CFO transition: Scott Schenkel stepped down effective May 11, 2026, with Derek Andersen (former CFO of Snap Inc., 2019-2026) named successor. No disagreement with company operations or accounting practices was cited.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

From Expedia Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS)
Thin upside margin: 8.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.0
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$28.4B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE71.5%
Rev Growth14.7%
Beta1.26
Dividend0.74%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.59bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$390+59.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductmerchant model revenue70%
    10-K Item 1: 'merchant, agency and advertising, media and other accounting for 70%, 22%, and 8% of total revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierAmazon Web Services (AWS)
    10-K Item 1A: 'as a result of our migration of key portions of our platform functionality to Amazon Web Services ("AWS"), we now depend on the availability of AWS's services'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Scott Schenkel stepped down effective May 11, 2026. Derek Andersen (former CFO of Snap Inc., May 2019-April 2026) named successor CFO. Departure not due to any disagreement with Company operations, policies, or accounting practices.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 1.01LOW
    Entered $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, maturing March 27, 2031. No loans outstanding at closing; approximately $42 million in standby letters of credit issued.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
6.1
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $205.91Resistance $246.50

Price Targets

$227
$263
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $243.91, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $226.51. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $263.42 (+8.2% upside). Prior stop was $226.51. Stop-loss: $226.51.

What are the risks of investing in EXPE?

Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS); Thin upside margin: 8.2%.

Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?

Expedia Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.0 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXPE?

44 analysts cover EXPE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $286.

What does Expedia Group, Inc. do?Expedia Group operates a global online travel marketplace under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo,...

Expedia Group operates a global online travel marketplace under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, generating $14.7 billion in total revenue for 2025. Revenue flows 70% through the merchant model, with the B2C, B2B, and trivago segments serving individual travelers, business travel partners, and hotel metasearch users. The platform listed approximately 3.6 million lodging properties at year-end 2025.

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · GBTG (Global Business Travel Group, I) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd) · TNL (Travel Leisure Co.)
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