Skip to main content

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $251.12, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services.

Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace offering 3.6M lodging properties (including 2.4M via Vrbo), 500+ airlines, and other travel products under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. Revenue comes from commissions and transaction fees from travel... Read more

$251.12+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 15 Travel Services
Stop $233.32Target $260.44(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$283.09+12.7%34 analysts
$260.44our TP
$251.12price
$283.09mean
$225
$387

Sell if holding. At $251.12, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services
Thin upside margin: 3.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.5
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$30.7B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn8.8%
ROE48.7%
Rev Growth11.4%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.67%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$125-50.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierAmazon Web Services
    10-K Item 1A: 'as a result of our migration of key portions of our platform functionality to Amazon Web Services ... we now depend on the availability of AWS's services'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Scott Schenkel agreed to step down effective May 11, 2026. Derek Andersen (former Snap CFO) appointed successor CFO effective May 11, 2026. Departure not due to any disagreement with operations or practices.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Expedia terminated its prior revolving credit facility on March 27, 2026, concurrent with entry into a new 2.5B revolving credit facility with JPMorgan maturing March 27, 2031. No early termination penalties cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.4

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $218.65Resistance $279.76

Price Targets

$233
$260
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $251.12, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $233.32. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the EXPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $260.44 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $233.32. Stop-loss: $233.32.

What are the risks of investing in EXPE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services; Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5.

Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?

Expedia Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXPE?

44 analysts cover EXPE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $283.

What does Expedia Group, Inc. do?Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace offering 3.6M lodging properties (including 2.4M via Vrbo), 500+...

Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace offering 3.6M lodging properties (including 2.4M via Vrbo), 500+ airlines, and other travel products under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. Revenue comes from commissions and transaction fees from travel suppliers plus advertising.

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · TNL (Travel Leisure Co.)