Expedia has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging over 16% upside surprise while trading at a forward multiple of 10.3x and a PEG of 0.78 — a combination suggesting meaningful undervaluation for a business with a wide economic moat and free cash flow conversion at 234% of net income. The risk/reward at the current price falls short of the threshold needed for a fresh entry, warranting patience until the asymmetry improves.
Thesis pillars
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Wide Moat Cash Conversion→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Low Peg↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $274.69: Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Expedia Group operates a global online travel marketplace under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, generating $14.7 billion in total revenue for 2025. Revenue flows 70% through the merchant model, with the B2C, B2B, and trivago segments serving individual travelers,... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $274.69: Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Expedia Group, Inc.
About Expedia Group, Inc.
Expedia Group generated $14.7 billion in total revenue for 2025, with the merchant model accounting for 70% of that total, the agency model for 22%, and advertising, media and other for 8%. The B2C segment — operating brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, Orbitz, Travelocity, and Wotif Group across countries around the world — drives the majority of bookings. At year-end 2025, the platform offered approximately 3.6 million lodging properties, including 2.4 million alternative accommodations through Vrbo.
Expedia Group earns the majority of its revenue by facilitating lodging, airline, and package bookings through the merchant model, collecting traveler payment in advance and remitting to suppliers after the stay or flight. The agency model, primarily used for air bookings, generates commissions and ticketing fees without the company acting as principal. The One Key loyalty program — launched in the United States in 2023, the United Kingdom in 2024, and expanded to additional markets in 2025 — spans Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo to encourage cross-brand repeat bookings. The B2B segment distributes Expedia Group's inventory through the Rapid API, white-label solutions, and the TAAP agent booking tool to corporate travel managers, airlines, and financial institutions. The trivago segment, majority-owned by Expedia Group and listed separately on Nasdaq as TRVG, earns advertising revenue by sending referrals to OTAs and travel suppliers. The 10-K names Booking.com, Airbnb, and Google as direct competitors, noting that Google has used its search market position to promote its own travel services in ways that could disintermediate Expedia Group's platform.
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Having migrated key platform functions to Amazon Web Services, Expedia Group now depends on AWS availability for booking and customer operations — the 10-K notes AWS disruptions have occurred a number of times in the recent past and could adversely affect platform availability. The company also uses Amadeus and Sabre as its two GDS providers for airline content distribution. In April 2026, Expedia Group disclosed via Form 8-K a CFO transition: Scott Schenkel stepped down effective May 11, 2026, with Derek Andersen (former CFO of Snap Inc., 2019-2026) named successor. No disagreement with company operations or accounting practices was cited.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
From Expedia Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Expedia Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS EXPE 261002 320.00C (EXPE261002C320000) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS Expedia Group (NASDAQ:EXPE) Reaches New 12-Month High - Should You Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Expedia Group (EXPE) Expected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Expedia (EXPE) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Expedia Group Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish? - Barchart.com — Barchart.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:27:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmerchant model revenue70%10-K Item 1: 'merchant, agency and advertising, media and other accounting for 70%, 22%, and 8% of total revenue, respectively'
- HIGHSupplierAmazon Web Services (AWS)10-K Item 1A: 'as a result of our migration of key portions of our platform functionality to Amazon Web Services ("AWS"), we now depend on the availability of AWS's services'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Scott Schenkel stepped down effective May 11, 2026. Derek Andersen (former CFO of Snap Inc., May 2019-April 2026) named successor CFO. Departure not due to any disagreement with Company operations, policies, or accounting practices.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-30Item 1.01LOWEntered $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, maturing March 27, 2031. No loans outstanding at closing; approximately $42 million in standby letters of credit issued.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $274.69: Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $256.29. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $309.25 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $256.29. Stop-loss: $256.29.
Concentration risk — Product: merchant model revenue (70.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Amazon Web Services (AWS); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Expedia Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
45 analysts cover EXPE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $336.
What does Expedia Group, Inc. do?Expedia Group operates a global online travel marketplace under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo,...
Expedia Group operates a global online travel marketplace under brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, generating $14.7 billion in total revenue for 2025. Revenue flows 70% through the merchant model, with the B2C, B2B, and trivago segments serving individual travelers, business travel partners, and hotel metasearch users. The platform listed approximately 3.6 million lodging properties at year-end 2025.