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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $215.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace with $14.7 billion in 2025 revenue through B2C brands (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo), B2B technology partnerships, and hotel metasearch (trivago). Revenue split: merchant 70%, agency 22%, advertising 8%. The company has 3.6... Read more

$215.00+22.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.48%
IncomeYield0.82%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout14.84%sustainable
Stop $206.95Target $263.42(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$286.32+33.2%34 analysts
$263.42our TP
$215.00price
$286.32mean
$409

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $215.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.0Qual6.5Grw6.2Mom3.8Sent7.3Ins5.0Peer5.3Tech7.5Risk4.96.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Expedia Group, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 23, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: CFO Scott Schenkel agreed to step down effective May 11, 2026; Derek Andersen (formerly CFO of Snap Inc.) appointed as successor CFO effective same date. Schenkel's departure not due to disagreement with the Company.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$25.8B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE71.5%
Rev Growth14.7%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.82%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV56%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Scott Schenkel agreed to step down effective May 11, 2026; Derek Andersen (formerly CFO of Snap Inc.) appointed as successor CFO effective same date. Schenkel's departure not due to disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.7
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
20 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $213.35Resistance $275.77

Price Targets

$207
$263
A.Upside+22.5%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $215.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $206.95. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.

What is the EXPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $263.42 (+22.5% upside). Prior stop was $206.95. Stop-loss: $206.95.

What are the risks of investing in EXPE?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?

Expedia Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXPE?

44 analysts cover EXPE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $286.

What does Expedia Group, Inc. do?Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace with $14.7 billion in 2025 revenue through B2C brands (Expedia,...

Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace with $14.7 billion in 2025 revenue through B2C brands (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo), B2B technology partnerships, and hotel metasearch (trivago). Revenue split: merchant 70%, agency 22%, advertising 8%. The company has 3.6 million lodging properties and 500+ airlines on its platforms.

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