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T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $197.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth.

T-Mobile US is a major US wireless carrier serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers as of December 31, 2025 under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Revenue comes primarily from wireless service plans and device sales, with the UScellular... Read more

$197.98+20.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#14 of 40 Telecom Services
Stop $184.15Target $237.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$263.59+33.1%27 analysts
$237.23our TP
$197.98price
$263.59mean
$310

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $197.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.57)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$214.5B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.42
Dividend2.06%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$125-36.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.8
Quality Rank
6.2
Growth Rank
7.6
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $182.01Resistance $206.78

Price Targets

$184
$237
A.Upside+19.8%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMUS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $197.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $237.23 (+19.8%), stop $184.15 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the TMUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $237.23 (+20.1% upside). Target $237.23 (+19.8%), stop $184.15 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $184.15.

What are the risks of investing in TMUS?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TMUS overvalued or undervalued?

T-Mobile US, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TMUS?

37 analysts cover TMUS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $264.

What does T-Mobile US, Inc. do?T-Mobile US is a major US wireless carrier serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers as of December 31, 2025...

T-Mobile US is a major US wireless carrier serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers as of December 31, 2025 under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Revenue comes primarily from wireless service plans and device sales, with the UScellular Wireless Business acquisition completed August 1, 2025.

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