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T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $189.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%).

T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the US, serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers under T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Service revenues are split 81% postpaid, 15% prepaid, and 4% wholesale; substantially all revenues are... Read more

$189.66+24.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#17 of 40 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.38%
IncomeYield2.20%Payout40.38%sustainable
Stop $179.54Target $236.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst target$262.63+38.5%27 analysts
$236.37our TP
$189.66price
$262.63mean
$310

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $189.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — T-Mobile US, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States
Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$200.4B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.32
Dividend2.20%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV42%normal
Max Pain$240+26.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1: 'Substantially all of our revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, were earned in the United States'
  • HIGHProductPostpaid customers81%
    10-K Item 1: '81% Postpaid customers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.8
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $182.01Resistance $206.78

Price Targets

$180
$236
A.Upside+24.6%
A.R:R4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMUS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $189.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $236.37 (+24.6%), stop $179.54 (−5.6%), A.R:R 4.6:1. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the TMUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $236.37 (+24.6% upside). Target $236.37 (+24.6%), stop $179.54 (−5.6%), A.R:R 4.6:1. Stop-loss: $179.54.

What are the risks of investing in TMUS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is TMUS overvalued or undervalued?

T-Mobile US, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TMUS?

37 analysts cover TMUS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $263.

What does T-Mobile US, Inc. do?T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the US, serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers...

T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the US, serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers under T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Service revenues are split 81% postpaid, 15% prepaid, and 4% wholesale; substantially all revenues are earned in the United States. The company also offers 5G fixed wireless broadband and fiber services.

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