Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.69
- ▸Attractively valued
TMUS · Why this verdict
Why T-Mobile US (TMUS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
T-Mobile trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.5x with a PEG of 0.75 and analyst consensus implying 24.3% upside to a target of $234.73 from $188.86, presenting a below-market-multiple telecom with a favorable risk-reward ratio of 4.42 to 1. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 16x within 12 months as the company delivers on the growth expectations embedded in the PEG ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2 reduces the effective quality of the earnings, and the leverage penalty has already been applied to the scoring — suggesting the low multiple may reflect the capital structure risk rather than a genuine discount. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at -3.7% per 30 days in a confirmed downtrend, placing T-Mobile below its long-term trend line and triggering a soft death cross warning, despite the MACD improving and RSI at 48 suggesting the move may be near exhaustion. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope flattens to within -1% per 30 days and price recovers above the moving average within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD improvement and rising on-balance volume in the context of a recovering death cross setup historically produce a favorable risk-reward on a 12-month basis if the underlying business is sound. | ||
A put/call ratio of 4.79 is significantly elevated, reflecting substantial bearish hedging activity in the options market that goes beyond routine positioning, potentially signaling that institutional players are protecting against a larger decline in the near term. Key risks | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0, declining more than 58% from the current level of 4.79, as bearish positioning normalizes and the downtrend resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterTelecom stocks with high dividend yields often attract elevated put activity from income investors hedging their core positions rather than expressing directional bearishness. | ||
Three of the last four quarters resulted in earnings beats, with the most recent quarter delivering a 15% positive surprise, and the company maintains a dividend with 216% coverage, suggesting a durable income and earnings delivery profile. Earnings | Beat count reaches at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the average positive surprise remains above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores are near the bottom of the range and the one missed quarter showed a -8.9% negative surprise, suggesting earnings delivery is not consistently ahead of estimates and the beat rate could revert to 50% over time. | ||
T-Mobile trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.5x with a PEG of 0.75 and analyst consensus implying 24.3% upside to a target of $234.73 from $188.86, presenting a below-market-multiple telecom with a favorable risk-reward ratio of 4.42 to 1.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 16x within 12 months as the company delivers on the growth expectations embedded in the PEG ratio.
CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2 reduces the effective quality of the earnings, and the leverage penalty has already been applied to the scoring — suggesting the low multiple may reflect the capital structure risk rather than a genuine discount.
The 200-day moving average is declining at -3.7% per 30 days in a confirmed downtrend, placing T-Mobile below its long-term trend line and triggering a soft death cross warning, despite the MACD improving and RSI at 48 suggesting the move may be near exhaustion.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope flattens to within -1% per 30 days and price recovers above the moving average within 6 months.
CounterMACD improvement and rising on-balance volume in the context of a recovering death cross setup historically produce a favorable risk-reward on a 12-month basis if the underlying business is sound.
A put/call ratio of 4.79 is significantly elevated, reflecting substantial bearish hedging activity in the options market that goes beyond routine positioning, potentially signaling that institutional players are protecting against a larger decline in the near term.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0, declining more than 58% from the current level of 4.79, as bearish positioning normalizes and the downtrend resolves.
CounterTelecom stocks with high dividend yields often attract elevated put activity from income investors hedging their core positions rather than expressing directional bearishness.
Three of the last four quarters resulted in earnings beats, with the most recent quarter delivering a 15% positive surprise, and the company maintains a dividend with 216% coverage, suggesting a durable income and earnings delivery profile.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat count reaches at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the average positive surprise remains above 5%.
CounterGrowth scores are near the bottom of the range and the one missed quarter showed a -8.9% negative surprise, suggesting earnings delivery is not consistently ahead of estimates and the beat rate could revert to 50% over time.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
T-Mobile offers 24.3% analyst-implied upside with a forward price-to-earnings of 13.5x, PEG of 0.75, and rising on-balance volume in a recovery setup, but a confirmed downtrend with a 3.7% declining 200-day moving average slope and an elevated put/call ratio of 4.79 create meaningful near-term risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 9.6 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $890,931 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 230.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.69
Upside
+31.3%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.69 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Sentiment at 7.1, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Growth at 2.6, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Value Low Peg
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 11x, declining more than 18% from the current 13.5x, confirming the valuation discount is deepening rather than narrowing.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend 200ma
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines below -6% per 30 days, signaling the downtrend is accelerating from the current -3.7% pace.
- P3Elevated Put Call Concern
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 7.0, exceeding the already elevated current level of 4.79 by more than 46%, signaling further deterioration in options market sentiment.
- P4Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that the predominantly positive beat track record has deteriorated.