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RCIRogers Communication, Inc.Sell6.3·$31.45-0.54%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Rogers Communications trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 10.7x with an excellent return on equity of 41% and strong operating margins of 32%, but earnings are expected to decline approximately 61% as the current period likely represents a cyclical peak — making valuation misleading and the near-term downside risk more significant than the headline multiples suggest.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Quality Metrics TelecomStable
  • Cyclical Earnings Peak RiskStable
  • Negative Price AsymmetryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Rogers Communication, Inc. (RCI) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. At $31.45, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak).

Rogers Communications Inc. operates as a communications, sports, and entertainment company in Canada. It operates through Wireless, Cable, and Media segments. The company offers mobile internet access, wireless voice and enhanced voice, device financing, device protection,... Read more

$31.45+8.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#4 of 45 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield39.56%
IncomeYield4.54%(5y avg 3.72%)Payout15.34%sustainable
Stop $30.44Target $34.23(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$40.27+28.0%4 analysts
$34.23our TP
$31.45price
$40.27mean
$49

Sell if holding. At $31.45, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 12, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.4
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$17.1B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE40.7%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.79
Dividend4.54%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV82%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
7.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
12 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.38Resistance $39.23

Price Targets

$30
$34
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 9x vs trail 3x (2.6x)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $31.45, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 12, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $30.44. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RCI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.23 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $30.44. Stop-loss: $30.44.

What are the risks of investing in RCI?

Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is RCI overvalued or undervalued?

Rogers Communication, Inc. trades at a P/E of 3.4 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RCI?

25 analysts cover RCI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Rogers Communication, Inc. do?Rogers Communications Inc. operates as a communications, sports, and entertainment company in Canada. It operates...

Rogers Communications Inc. operates as a communications, sports, and entertainment company in Canada. It operates through Wireless, Cable, and Media segments. The company offers mobile internet access, wireless voice and enhanced voice, device financing, device protection, global voice and data roaming, wireless home phone, bridging landline, machine-to-machine and Internet of Things solutions, and advanced wireless solutions for businesses, as well as device shipping and pickup services; satellite-to-mobile service; and wireless solutions under the Rogers, Fido, and chatr brands. It also provides Internet access, Internet protocol-based (IP) television, applications, online viewing, phone, home monitoring, and advanced home WiFi services to consumer and businesses. In addition, the company offers local and network TV; on-demand television; cloud-based digital video recorders; voice-activated remote controls, restart, and integrated apps; linear and time-shifted programming; digital specialty channels; and 4K television programming. Further, it provides residential and small business local telephony services; voicemail, call waiting, and long distance; video and audio programming; voice, data networking, IP, and Ethernet services; private networking, Internet, IP voice, and cloud solutions; optical wave and multi-protocol label switching services; information technology and network technologies; cable access network services; telecommunications technical consulting services; and season games through television, smartphones, tablets, personal computers, and other streaming devices. Additionally, the company owns Toronto Blue Jays and the Rogers Centre event venue; and operates Sportsnet ONE, Sportsnet 360, Sportsnet World, Citytv, OMNI, FX (Canada), FXX (Canada), and HGTV television networks, as well as AM and FM radio stations. It also offers Rogers and the Rogers Red World Elite Mastercard. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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