TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TKO stock price target?

Take-profit $212.25 (+14.8% upside). Prior stop was $175.11.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TKO?

Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum; EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d.

Q: Is TKO overvalued or undervalued?

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 81.3 (forward 46.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TKO?

28 analysts cover TKO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $236.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Communication Services · Entertainment

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

TKO Group Holdings operates UFC (MMA), WWE (sports entertainment), PBR (bull riding), and joint venture Zuffa Boxing, collectively reaching 1B+ households across 210 countries with 500+ live events annually. Revenue comes from media rights licensing (Netflix, Paramount, ESPN),... Read more

$184.54+14.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#20 of 27 Entertainment

Stop $175.11Target $212.25(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1

Analyst target$235.83+27.8%18 analysts

$212.25our TP

$184.54price

$235.83mean

$275

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $184.54 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)81.3

P/E (Fwd)46.2

Mkt Cap$13.8B

EV/EBITDA16.8

Profit Mgn4.1%

ROE5.6%

Rev Growth11.9%

Beta0.41

Dividend1.70%

Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.48bearish

IV54%elevated

Max Pain$135-26.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.215%0.63

Quality5.215%0.78

Growth5.515%0.82

Momentum1.510%0.15

Sentiment6.910%0.69

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank4.510%0.45

Technical Setup7.35%0.36

Risk Profile4.85%0.24

Catalyst4.85%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)4.75

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

1.5

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.0

Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

25 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $180.53Resistance $205.28

Price Targets

$175

$212

A.Upside+15.0%

A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TKO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $184.54 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $175.11. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $212.25 (+14.8% upside). Prior stop was $175.11. Stop-loss: $175.11.

What are the risks of investing in TKO?

Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is TKO overvalued or undervalued?

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 81.3 (forward 46.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKO?

28 analysts cover TKO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $236.

What does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. do?TKO Group Holdings operates UFC (MMA), WWE (sports entertainment), PBR (bull riding), and joint venture Zuffa Boxing,...