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TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.Sell5.8·$200.77-1.27%
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TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. At $200.77, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 5.1%.

TKO Group Holdings owns premium sports and entertainment properties including UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, plus sports marketing agency IMG and experiential hospitality business On Location, reaching 1B+ households in 210 countries. Revenue streams include media rights... Read more

$200.77+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#9 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.14%
IncomeYield1.53%Payout100.37%at-risk
Stop $186.58Target $210.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$234.39+16.7%18 analysts
$210.95our TP
$200.77price
$234.39mean
$185
$275

Sell if holding. At $200.77, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 5.1%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

TKO Group Holdings' UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location properties collectively reached over 1 billion households in 210 countries in 2025, hosting over 500 live events — including WrestleMania 41, which drew more than 118,000 Las Vegas attendees. A seven-year UFC exclusive U.S. deal with Paramount+ takes effect in 2026, and WWE's Raw has been on a 10-year exclusive Netflix global deal since January 2025. TKO completed the $3.25 billion Endeavor Asset Acquisition on February 28, 2025, adding IMG, On Location, and PBR.

TKO monetizes across four revenue channels: media rights licensing to broadcasters and streaming platforms under long-term agreements (typically 3 to 10 years per contract), live event ticket sales and site fees, sponsorship and partnership commissions (including IMG's fee-based rights management for over 300 sports federations), and consumer product royalties from agreements with EA Sports, Take-Two Interactive, Mattel, and Fanatics. UFC athletes are independent contractors — approximately 650 representing more than 70 countries as of December 31, 2025 — allowing roster flexibility without traditional franchise labor obligations. WWE and UFC fanbases skew younger than traditional U.S. sports leagues: median ages of 35 and 37, respectively, versus 38 to 47 for other major leagues, making the properties attractive to sponsors seeking those demographics. The company operates without a franchise system or independent promoters, enabling unilateral decisions on event scheduling, venue selection, and content production.

Show full overview

TKO's content revenue depends on exclusive long-term distribution agreements with a small number of streaming and broadcast partners. The Netflix Raw agreement carries an initial 10-year term with Netflix able to opt out after five years, potentially triggering renegotiation risk no earlier than 2030. The seven-year Paramount UFC deal, beginning 2026, runs through approximately 2032 for all U.S. distribution. The risk factor summary acknowledges that failure to maintain or replace these key agreements could adversely affect the company's ability to distribute content and could weigh on revenue from the media rights segment, which is the highest-margin component of TKO's four-channel revenue model.

See also: Communication Services · Entertainment

From TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T08:41:50Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.1%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)75.9
P/E (Fwd)43.6
Mkt Cap$38.9B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth25.9%
Beta0.62
Dividend1.53%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$260+29.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
1.2
Ev Ebitda
1.7
Forward Pe
2.6
Ps
5.1
Peg Ratio
5.3
Analyst Target
6.0
Forward P/E: 43.6xPEG: 1.44
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $185.66Resistance $215.86

Price Targets

$187
$211
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $200.77, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 5.1%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $186.58. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $210.95 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $186.58. Stop-loss: $186.58.

What are the risks of investing in TKO?

Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Expensive valuation.

Is TKO overvalued or undervalued?

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 75.9 (forward 43.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKO?

27 analysts cover TKO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $234.

What does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. do?TKO Group Holdings owns premium sports and entertainment properties including UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, plus...

TKO Group Holdings owns premium sports and entertainment properties including UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, plus sports marketing agency IMG and experiential hospitality business On Location, reaching 1B+ households in 210 countries. Revenue streams include media rights licenses (Paramount, Netflix, ESPN, DAZN), live events, corporate sponsorships, and consumer product licensing.

Related stocks: CNK (Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark ) · NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) · NWSA (News Corporation) · FWONK (Liberty Media Corporation - Ser) · SPHR (Sphere Entertainment Co.)
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