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TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. At $193.07, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

TKO Group Holdings owns premium sports and entertainment properties including UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, plus sports marketing agency IMG and experiential hospitality business On Location, reaching 1B+ households in 210 countries. Revenue streams include media rights... Read more

$193.07+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.71%
IncomeYield1.61%Payout100.37%at-risk
Stop $180.71Target $210.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$234.39+21.4%18 analysts
$210.95our TP
$193.07price
$234.39mean
$275

Sell if holding. At $193.07, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.3%
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)71.9
P/E (Fwd)41.6
Mkt Cap$14.5B
EV/EBITDA16.6
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth25.9%
Beta0.60
Dividend1.61%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.08bullish
IV40%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
2.3
52w Position
7.1
GatesA.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $180.53Resistance $196.75

Price Targets

$181
$211
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $193.07, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $180.71. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $210.95 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $180.71. Stop-loss: $180.71.

What are the risks of investing in TKO?

Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is TKO overvalued or undervalued?

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 71.9 (forward 41.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKO?

28 analysts cover TKO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $234.

What does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. do?TKO Group Holdings owns premium sports and entertainment properties including UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, plus...

TKO Group Holdings owns premium sports and entertainment properties including UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, plus sports marketing agency IMG and experiential hospitality business On Location, reaching 1B+ households in 210 countries. Revenue streams include media rights licenses (Paramount, Netflix, ESPN, DAZN), live events, corporate sponsorships, and consumer product licensing.

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