TKO Group Holdings delivers 26% year-over-year revenue growth and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 367% relative to net income, but a 75% earnings miss rate over the last four quarters and an expensive forward price-to-earnings of 43x limit the conviction in this setup.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
- Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Communication Services · Entertainment
Sell if holding. At $193.48, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.
TKO Group Holdings owns UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location, with properties reaching over 1 billion households in 210 countries and hosting more than 500 live events in 2025. Revenue comes from media rights licensing (long-term exclusive deals with Paramount+, Netflix, and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $193.48, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
TKO Group Holdings' UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location properties collectively reached over 1 billion households in 210 countries in 2025, hosting over 500 live events — including WrestleMania 41, which drew more than 118,000 Las Vegas attendees. A seven-year UFC exclusive U.S. deal with Paramount+ takes effect in 2026, and WWE's Raw has been on a 10-year exclusive Netflix global deal since January 2025. TKO completed the $3.25 billion Endeavor Asset Acquisition on February 28, 2025, adding IMG, On Location, and PBR.
TKO monetizes across four revenue channels: media rights licensing to broadcasters and streaming platforms under long-term agreements (typically 3 to 10 years per contract), live event ticket sales and site fees, sponsorship and partnership commissions (including IMG's fee-based rights management for over 300 sports federations), and consumer product royalties from agreements with EA Sports, Take-Two Interactive, Mattel, and Fanatics. UFC athletes are independent contractors — approximately 650 representing more than 70 countries as of December 31, 2025 — allowing roster flexibility without traditional franchise labor obligations. WWE and UFC fanbases skew younger than traditional U.S. sports leagues: median ages of 35 and 37, respectively, versus 38 to 47 for other major leagues, making the properties attractive to sponsors seeking those demographics. The company operates without a franchise system or independent promoters, enabling unilateral decisions on event scheduling, venue selection, and content production.
Show full overview
TKO's content revenue depends on exclusive long-term distribution agreements with a small number of streaming and broadcast partners. The Netflix Raw agreement carries an initial 10-year term with Netflix able to opt out after five years, potentially triggering renegotiation risk no earlier than 2030. The seven-year Paramount UFC deal, beginning 2026, runs through approximately 2032 for all U.S. distribution. The risk factor summary acknowledges that failure to maintain or replace these key agreements could adversely affect the company's ability to distribute content and could weigh on revenue from the media rights segment, which is the highest-margin component of TKO's four-channel revenue model.
See also: Communication Services · Entertainment
From TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TKO Group Holdings Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TKO Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 1.38B USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs Maintains TKO Group Holdings(TKO.US) With Buy Rating, Cuts Target Price to $215 - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TKO Group (NYSE:TKO) Stock Price Target Lowered at The Goldman Sachs Group - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyParamount10-K Item 1: 'UFC announced a new seven-year partnership with Paramount...to become the exclusive home of all UFC events in the U.S.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyNetflix10-K Item 1: 'Since January 2025, Netflix has been the exclusive global home to Raw.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $193.48, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $184.12. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $208.47 (+7.7% upside). Prior stop was $184.12. Stop-loss: $184.12.
Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 65.4 (forward 41.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts rate TKO, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $232.
What does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. do?TKO Group Holdings owns UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location, with properties reaching over 1 billion households in 210...
TKO Group Holdings owns UFC, WWE, PBR, IMG, and On Location, with properties reaching over 1 billion households in 210 countries and hosting more than 500 live events in 2025. Revenue comes from media rights licensing (long-term exclusive deals with Paramount+, Netflix, and ESPN), live events and hospitality, brand partnerships, and consumer product licensing. The company completed the $3.25 billion Endeavor Asset Acquisition on February 28, 2025.