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ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.Sell6.4·$234.83
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ross Stores is an off-price apparel retailer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 39% return on equity, and 21% year-over-year earnings growth, currently trading at full value with essentially zero near-term upside to analyst resistance targets following a strong price run.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Growth 21 Pct—
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Off Price↓Deteriorating
  • Industry Leading Return On Equity→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $234.83 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

$234.83+2.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.72%
IncomeYield0.79%(5y avg 1.01%)Payout20.56%sustainable
Stop $224.09Target $241.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$268.61+14.4%18 analysts
$241.75our TP
$234.83price
$268.61mean
$187
$310

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $234.83 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-16

Recent Developments — Ross Stores, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Sep 17, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Director (b) Effective on October 1, 2026, Ms. Sharon D.

Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:28Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 19, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)25.7
Mkt Cap$73.7B
EV/EBITDA20.3
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE42.6%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta0.84
Dividend0.79%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$310+32.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-09-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Director (b) Effective on October 1, 2026, Ms. Sharon D.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $220.10Resistance $239.73

Price Targets

$224
$242
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-19 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $234.83 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $224.09. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $241.75 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $224.09. Stop-loss: $224.09.

What are the risks of investing in ROST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is ROST overvalued or undervalued?

Ross Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 25.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ROST?

27 analysts cover ROST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $269.

What does Ross Stores, Inc. do?Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel...

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

Related stocks: GAP (Gap, Inc. (The)) · LULU (lululemon athletica inc.) · BURL (Burlington Stores, Inc.) · TJX (TJX Companies, Inc. (The))
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