Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1013.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%).
Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs in 14 countries, selling limited-SKU merchandise at low prices to drive high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. Revenue comes from membership fees and merchandise sales, with ~10% from gasoline; U.S. and Canada accounted... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1013.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicU.S. and Canadian operations86%10-K Item 1A: 'our U.S. and Canadian operations, which comprised 86% and 84% of net sales and operating income in 2025'
- LOWGeographicCalifornia26%10-K Item 1A: 'we are highly dependent on our California operations, which comprised 26% of U.S. net sales in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1013.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $979.39. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $1015.10 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $979.39. Stop-loss: $979.39.
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).
Costco Wholesale Corporation trades at a P/E of 51.8 (forward 44.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
44 analysts cover COST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1072.
What does Costco Wholesale Corporation do?Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs in 14 countries, selling limited-SKU merchandise at low prices to drive...
Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs in 14 countries, selling limited-SKU merchandise at low prices to drive high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. Revenue comes from membership fees and merchandise sales, with ~10% from gasoline; U.S. and Canada accounted for 86% of net sales and operating income in 2025.