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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1094.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs globally, offering low-priced branded and Kirkland Signature private-label merchandise to 81 million paid members (92.3% US/Canada renewal rate). US and Canadian operations generate 86% of net sales and operating income; within the... Read more

$1094.31-1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.40%
IncomeYield0.55%(5y avg 0.60%)Payout27.04%sustainable
Stop $1050.70Target $1074.57(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$1072.91-2.0%32 analysts
$1074.57our TP
$1094.31price
$1072.91mean
$650
$1315

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1094.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Costco Wholesale Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-1.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)55.9
P/E (Fwd)47.8
Mkt Cap$477.6B
EV/EBITDA35.3
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE29.7%
Rev Growth21.5%
Beta0.91
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.36bearish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicU.S. and Canadian operations86%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial and operational performance is highly dependent on our U.S. and Canadian operations, which comprised 86% and 84% of net sales and operating income in 2025.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia operations26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Within the U.S., we are highly dependent on our California operations, which comprised 26% of U.S. net sales in 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.2
Forward Pe
2.4
Peg Ratio
2.4
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
9.2
Forward P/E: 47.8xPEG: 5.12

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
10.0
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $983.69Resistance $1096.50

Price Targets

$1051
$1075
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1094.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $1074.57 (-1.8%), stop $1050.70 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1074.57 (-1.8% upside). Target $1074.57 (-1.8%), stop $1050.70 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $1050.70.

What are the risks of investing in COST?

Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-1.3% away).

Is COST overvalued or undervalued?

Costco Wholesale Corporation trades at a P/E of 55.9 (forward 47.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about COST?

44 analysts cover COST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1073.

What does Costco Wholesale Corporation do?Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs globally, offering low-priced branded and Kirkland Signature...

Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs globally, offering low-priced branded and Kirkland Signature private-label merchandise to 81 million paid members (92.3% US/Canada renewal rate). US and Canadian operations generate 86% of net sales and operating income; within the US, California alone accounts for 26% of US net sales. Gasoline and e-commerce each represent ~10% of total net sales.

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