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Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $721.75 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%).

Sterling Infrastructure is a construction contractor with three segments: E-Infrastructure (site development and electrical for data centers, semiconductor fabs, manufacturing), Transportation (highways, bridges, airports), and Building Solutions (residential/commercial... Read more

$721.75+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.47%
Stop $677.31Target $731.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$841.00+16.5%5 analysts
$731.67our TP
$721.75price
$841.00mean
$482
$1000

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $721.75 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.1Qual6.5Grw10.0Mom3.9Sent7.0Ins3.4Peer4.3Tech5.4Risk4.75.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)68.9
P/E (Fwd)34.4
Mkt Cap$23.7B
EV/EBITDA40.4
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE36.7%
Rev Growth91.6%
Beta1.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment)58%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top four state DOTs in each year, accounted for 58% of the segment's revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-4 Building Solutions customers45%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top four customers in each year, including their respective affiliates, accounted for 45% of the segment's revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-4 E-Infrastructure customers27%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top four customers in each year, accounted for 27% of the segment's revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.6
Forward Pe
3.1
Peg Ratio
3.4
Ps
4.7
Analyst Target
5.0
Forward P/E: 34.4xPEG: 3.55

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.5
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $465.35Resistance $893.13

Price Targets

$677
$732
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STRL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $721.75 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $677.31. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STRL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $731.67 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $677.31. Stop-loss: $677.31.

What are the risks of investing in STRL?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is STRL overvalued or undervalued?

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. trades at a P/E of 68.9 (forward 34.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STRL?

14 analysts cover STRL with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $841.

What does Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. do?Sterling Infrastructure is a construction contractor with three segments: E-Infrastructure (site development and...

Sterling Infrastructure is a construction contractor with three segments: E-Infrastructure (site development and electrical for data centers, semiconductor fabs, manufacturing), Transportation (highways, bridges, airports), and Building Solutions (residential/commercial concrete). $3.01B backlog at December 31, 2025; operates primarily in Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Rocky Mountain US.

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