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Argan, Inc. (AGX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $647.02 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%).

Argan, Inc. is an engineering and construction holding company operating through Power (EPC for gas and renewable plants), Industrial (on-site services in the U.S. Southeast), and Teledata (Mid-Atlantic data/power networks) segments. Power represented 80.1% of fiscal 2026... Read more

$647.02+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#17 of 30 Engineering & Construction
Stop $599.59Target $669.46(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$473.20-26.9%5 analysts
$669.46our TP
$647.02price
$473.20mean
$375

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $647.02 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)64.5
P/E (Fwd)42.2
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA57.7
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth12.7%
Beta0.46
Dividend0.32%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPower segment80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Most of our consolidated revenues are generated by the Power segment, which represented 80.1%, 79.3% and 72.6% of consolidated revenues for Fiscal 2026, Fiscal 2025 and Fiscal 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $546.91Resistance $683.12

Price Targets

$600
$669
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-36.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-03 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $647.02 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $599.59. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $669.46 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $599.59. Stop-loss: $599.59.

What are the risks of investing in AGX?

Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is AGX overvalued or undervalued?

Argan, Inc. trades at a P/E of 64.5 (forward 42.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGX?

10 analysts cover AGX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $473.

What does Argan, Inc. do?Argan, Inc. is an engineering and construction holding company operating through Power (EPC for gas and renewable...

Argan, Inc. is an engineering and construction holding company operating through Power (EPC for gas and renewable plants), Industrial (on-site services in the U.S. Southeast), and Teledata (Mid-Atlantic data/power networks) segments. Power represented 80.1% of fiscal 2026 revenues of ~$944M.

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