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Argan, Inc. (AGX) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $643.25 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%).

Argan is an EPC contractor focused on power generation projects, with Power (80.1% of FY2026 revenues at $756.5M), Industrial (17.7%), and Teledata (2.2%) segments, primarily in the U.S., Ireland, and U.K. It earns fixed-price EPC contract revenue from independent power... Read more

$643.25+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#20 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.82%
IncomeYield0.31%(5y avg 1.82%)Payout17.97%sustainable
Stop $598.62Target $733.53(resistance)A.R:R -2.8:1
Analyst target$473.20-26.4%5 analysts
$733.53our TP
$643.25price
$473.20mean
$375
$734

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $643.25 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Argan, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)65.8
P/E (Fwd)42.9
Mkt Cap$8.9B
EV/EBITDA58.6
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth12.7%
Beta0.61
Dividend0.31%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV92%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Power segment customers
    10-K Item 1: 'our most significant customer relationships included three Power segment customers, which accounted for approximately 23%, 16% and 11% of consolidated revenues'
  • HIGHProductPower segment80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Most of our consolidated revenues are generated by the Power segment, which represented 80.1%, 79.3% and 72.6% of consolidated revenues for Fiscal 2026, Fiscal 2025 and Fiscal 2024'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
1.7
Forward Pe
2.6
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
3.8
Peg Ratio
8.4
Forward P/E: 42.9xPEG: 0.77
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -2.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $607.21Resistance $748.50

Price Targets

$599
$734
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R-2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-36.0% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-03 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $643.25 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $598.62. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $733.53 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $598.62. Stop-loss: $598.62.

What are the risks of investing in AGX?

Concentration risk — Product: Power segment (80.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AGX overvalued or undervalued?

Argan, Inc. trades at a P/E of 65.8 (forward 42.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGX?

10 analysts cover AGX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $473.

What does Argan, Inc. do?Argan is an EPC contractor focused on power generation projects, with Power (80.1% of FY2026 revenues at $756.5M),...

Argan is an EPC contractor focused on power generation projects, with Power (80.1% of FY2026 revenues at $756.5M), Industrial (17.7%), and Teledata (2.2%) segments, primarily in the U.S., Ireland, and U.K. It earns fixed-price EPC contract revenue from independent power producers and public utilities.

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