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Granite Construction Incorporat (GVA) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $132.46: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Granite Construction is one of the largest US civil contractors and construction materials producers, operating in 17 states via Construction and Materials segments; Caltrans was the largest customer at 10.1% of 2025 total revenue ($446.6M). ~70% of Construction Segment revenue... Read more

$132.46+6.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.15%
IncomeYield0.38%(5y avg 1.06%)Payout14.17%sustainable
Stop $123.19Target $141.53(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$166.50+25.7%4 analysts
$141.53our TP
$132.46price
$166.50mean
$185

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $132.46: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.6Qual3.8Grw10.0Mom3.6Sent6.9Ins3.4Peer4.4Tech6.2Risk4.15.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Granite Construction Incorporat

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.4
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE20.0%
Rev Growth30.4%
Beta1.35
Dividend0.38%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.28bearish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerCaltrans10%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue recognized from contracts with Caltrans during the years ended December 31, 2025 ... represented $446.6 million (10.1% of total revenue)'
  • HIGHCustomerfederal, state and local government agencies70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70% of our Construction Segment revenue in 2025 was derived from contracts funded by federal, state and local government agencies'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Company entered Exchange Agreements to retire $100M of 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 for cash/stock consideration; total consideration based on 15-day VWAP from Feb 18, 2026 (all cash if VWAP ≤$140/share). Amendment corrected prior mislabeling as Item 1.03.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
6.0
Volume
6.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.0
Roa
3.5
Current Ratio
4.3
Fcf Quality
5.3
Moat
6.0
Roe
6.7
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $120.02Resistance $145.00

Price Targets

$123
$142
A.Upside+6.8%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $132.46: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $123.19. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $141.53 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $123.19. Stop-loss: $123.19.

What are the risks of investing in GVA?

Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is GVA overvalued or undervalued?

Granite Construction Incorporat trades at a P/E of 37.4 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GVA?

7 analysts cover GVA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $167.

What does Granite Construction Incorporat do?Granite Construction is one of the largest US civil contractors and construction materials producers, operating in 17...

Granite Construction is one of the largest US civil contractors and construction materials producers, operating in 17 states via Construction and Materials segments; Caltrans was the largest customer at 10.1% of 2025 total revenue ($446.6M). ~70% of Construction Segment revenue comes from government agencies; Committed and Awarded Projects totaled $7.0B at Dec 31, 2025.

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