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Granite Construction Incorporat (GVA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.14 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%).

Granite Construction is one of the largest vertically integrated civil contractors and materials producers in the U.S., building roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, and other public and private infrastructure. Approximately 70% of construction revenue comes from federal, state,... Read more

$127.14+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#16 of 30 Engineering & Construction
Stop $121.66Target $130.26(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$153.25+20.5%4 analysts
$130.26our TP
$127.14price
$153.25mean
$161

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.14 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.7
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA13.9
Profit Mgn4.4%
ROE19.2%
Rev Growth19.2%
Beta1.31
Dividend0.42%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.42bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfederal, state and local government agencies70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70% of our construction revenue was funded by federal, state and local government agencies and authorities.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Granite entered Exchange Agreements February 18, 2026 to exchange $100M aggregate principal of 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 for cash and/or stock based on 15-day VWAP measurement period. Termination/modification of material note agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.7
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $118.37Resistance $129.01

Price Targets

$122
$130
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.14 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $121.66. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.26 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $121.66. Stop-loss: $121.66.

What are the risks of investing in GVA?

Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is GVA overvalued or undervalued?

Granite Construction Incorporat trades at a P/E of 31.7 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GVA?

8 analysts cover GVA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $153.

What does Granite Construction Incorporat do?Granite Construction is one of the largest vertically integrated civil contractors and materials producers in the U.S.,...

Granite Construction is one of the largest vertically integrated civil contractors and materials producers in the U.S., building roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, and other public and private infrastructure. Approximately 70% of construction revenue comes from federal, state, and local government agencies. It also sells aggregates and asphalt through its Materials segment.

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