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Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. At $101.27, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements.

Semtech designs and markets high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for data center networking, IoT connectivity, and cellular infrastructure, serving OEM customers in infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial markets globally. Revenue from silicon... Read more

$101.27+9.0% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#39 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $94.50Target $110.79(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$105.54+4.2%13 analysts
$110.79our TP
$101.27price
$105.54mean
$89
$122

Sell if holding. At $101.27, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors
Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)33.8
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA58.0
Profit Mgn-3.8%
ROE-7.4%
Rev Growth9.3%
Beta2.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.65bearish
IV88%elevated
Max Pain$50-50.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierChina, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors
    10-K Item 1A: 'A majority of our package and test operations are performed by third-party contractors based in China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.'
  • HIGHSupplierChina rare earth elements
    10-K Item 1A: 'Certain of our products rely on rare earth elements for their manufacturing, of which a significant majority are sourced from China.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.0
Value Rank
5.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $75.50Resistance $113.05

Price Targets

$95
$111
A.Upside+9.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.6% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $101.27, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $94.50. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.79 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $94.50. Stop-loss: $94.50.

What are the risks of investing in SMTC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SMTC overvalued or undervalued?

Semtech Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 33.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMTC?

22 analysts cover SMTC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $106.

What does Semtech Corporation do?Semtech designs and markets high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for data center networking, IoT...

Semtech designs and markets high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for data center networking, IoT connectivity, and cellular infrastructure, serving OEM customers in infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial markets globally. Revenue from silicon solutions and IoT modules/routers/gateways sold to device makers, enterprises, and solution providers.

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