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Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $132.39 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%).

Semtech is a provider of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and IoT connectivity solutions across three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless, and IoT Systems & Connectivity. Total revenue was $1.05B in FY2026; 74% of net sales go... Read more

$132.39+10.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#35 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.14%
Stop $123.12Target $146.15(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$113.46-14.3%13 analysts
$146.15our TP
$132.39price
$113.46mean
$89
$165

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $132.39 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Semtech Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)47.3
Mkt Cap$12.8B
EV/EBITDA80.4
Profit Mgn-3.8%
ROE-7.4%
Rev Growth9.3%
Beta2.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina47%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to customers located in China (including Hong Kong) comprised 47% of our net sales in fiscal year 2026.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerCustomer B14%
    10-K Item 1: 'Customer B| 14%| | 13%| | 10%'
  • MEDIUMCustomerCustomer A11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Customer A| 11%| | 10%| | *'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
2.8
Value Rank
4.2

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
1.9
Forward Pe
2.4
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 47.3xPEG: 0.06
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.80Resistance $149.13

Price Targets

$123
$146
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-25.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-26 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $132.39 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $123.12. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the SMTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $146.15 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $123.12. Stop-loss: $123.12.

What are the risks of investing in SMTC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Is SMTC overvalued or undervalued?

Semtech Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 47.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMTC?

22 analysts cover SMTC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Semtech Corporation do?Semtech is a provider of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and IoT connectivity solutions across...

Semtech is a provider of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and IoT connectivity solutions across three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless, and IoT Systems & Connectivity. Total revenue was $1.05B in FY2026; 74% of net sales go through distributors, and the company operates globally with 47% of FY2026 sales to China.

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