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SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.Sell5.3·$91.31
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SiteOne Landscape Supply offers 30% analyst upside with a strong 4.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio and rising earnings estimates, but a confirmed death cross, negative 2.6% monthly moving average decline, elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.62, and below-floor business quality scores make the near-term technical picture challenging for new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • High Analyst Upside With Improving Estimates→Stable
  • Confirmed Death Cross Downtrend↓Deteriorating
  • Elevated Put Call Options Caution↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $91.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Our business, operations, and financial condition are subject to various risks as set forth in Part I, Item 1A., ''Risk Factors'' below. The following information should be read in conjunction with the Risk Factors, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and... Read more

$91.31+21.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#13 of 20 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.62%
Stop $85.17Target $110.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$127.08+39.2%12 analysts
$110.56our TP
$91.31price
$127.08mean
$160

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $91.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.3
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA13.1
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta1.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.71bearish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
9.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Earnings Growth
4.0
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $86.20Resistance $102.29

Price Targets

$85
$111
A.Upside+21.1%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SITE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $91.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $85.17. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SITE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.56 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $85.17. Stop-loss: $85.17.

What are the risks of investing in SITE?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SITE overvalued or undervalued?

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SITE?

19 analysts cover SITE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $127.

What does SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. do?Our business, operations, and financial condition are subject to various risks as set forth in Part I, Item 1A., ''Risk...

Our business, operations, and financial condition are subject to various risks as set forth in Part I, Item 1A., ''Risk Factors'' below. The following information should be read in conjunction with the Risk Factors, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, and the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data and related notes included elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Related stocks: GIC (Global Industrial Company) · QXO (QXO, Inc.) · AIT (Applied Industrial Technologies) · XMTR (Xometry, Inc.) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.)
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