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SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.Sell5.5·$100.58+2.14%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SiteOne Landscape Supply offers 30% analyst upside with a strong 4.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio and rising earnings estimates, but a confirmed death cross, negative 2.6% monthly moving average decline, elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.62, and below-floor business quality scores make the near-term technical picture challenging for new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • High Analyst Upside With Improving EstimatesStable
  • Confirmed Death Cross DowntrendImproving
  • Elevated Put Call Options CautionDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. At $100.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Our business, operations, and financial condition are subject to various risks as set forth in Part I, Item 1A., ''Risk Factors'' below. The following information should be read in conjunction with the Risk Factors, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and... Read more

$100.58+9.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 20 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.30%
Stop $94.82Target $110.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$127.08+26.4%12 analysts
$110.56our TP
$100.58price
$127.08mean
$160

Sell if holding. At $100.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.0
P/E (Fwd)19.6
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta1.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
52w Position
1.9
Support Resistance
3.3

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Earnings Growth
4.0
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $93.10Resistance $104.24

Price Targets

$95
$111
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SITE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $100.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $94.82. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SITE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.56 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $94.82. Stop-loss: $94.82.

What are the risks of investing in SITE?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is SITE overvalued or undervalued?

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 19.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SITE?

19 analysts cover SITE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $127.

What does SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. do?Our business, operations, and financial condition are subject to various risks as set forth in Part I, Item 1A., ''Risk...

Our business, operations, and financial condition are subject to various risks as set forth in Part I, Item 1A., ''Risk Factors'' below. The following information should be read in conjunction with the Risk Factors, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, and the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data and related notes included elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Related stocks: GIC (Global Industrial Company) · AIT (Applied Industrial Technologies) · QXO (QXO, Inc.) · XMTR (Xometry, Inc.) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.)
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