Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
SITE · Why this verdict
Why SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SiteOne Landscape Supply offers 30% analyst upside with a strong 4.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio and rising earnings estimates, but a confirmed death cross, negative 2.6% monthly moving average decline, elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.62, and below-floor business quality scores make the near-term technical picture challenging for new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts see 30% upside to the consensus price target of approximately $139.83 from the current price of $107.26, and earnings estimates are trending upward, suggesting the investment community expects meaningful operational improvement over the next 12 months. Bull case | Analyst consensus price target rises to above $145 within 12 months as earnings revisions continue to move higher. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterAnalyst consensus in distribution businesses is often slow to reflect operational deterioration; the most recent earnings miss of negative 11.75% suggests near-term estimates may still be too optimistic. | ||
SiteOne is trading in a confirmed downtrend with its 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, the monthly moving average slope at negative 2.6%, and the stock scoring only 1.0 out of 10 on moving average positioning. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and holds there for at least 20 trading days, with the monthly moving average slope improving to above negative 1.0%, before the technical picture clears for new entry. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving despite the death cross, and RSI at a low level suggests the stock may be approaching a tradeable technical reversal even within the current downtrend. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 2.62 — more than 2.5 puts for every call — combined with implied volatility of 68% and the stock trading above its maximum pain price of $95 suggests options market participants hold strong bearish views on the near-term direction. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 within 3 months, indicating a reduction in bearish hedging as the technical picture improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh put-to-call ratios in distribution companies often reflect institutional portfolio hedges rather than directional bets; they do not always predict price direction. | ||
Despite a below-floor composite quality score, SiteOne achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and free cash flow quality score of 7.9 out of 10, indicating that the financial health fundamentals are stronger than the overall quality composite suggests. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 12 months, confirming balance sheet and profitability discipline is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score alongside an operating margin score of 0.0 is contradictory; the thin operating margins may not be sustainable if revenue growth stalls in the landscape distribution market. | ||
Analysts see 30% upside to the consensus price target of approximately $139.83 from the current price of $107.26, and earnings estimates are trending upward, suggesting the investment community expects meaningful operational improvement over the next 12 months.
Tripped→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises to above $145 within 12 months as earnings revisions continue to move higher.
CounterAnalyst consensus in distribution businesses is often slow to reflect operational deterioration; the most recent earnings miss of negative 11.75% suggests near-term estimates may still be too optimistic.
SiteOne is trading in a confirmed downtrend with its 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, the monthly moving average slope at negative 2.6%, and the stock scoring only 1.0 out of 10 on moving average positioning.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and holds there for at least 20 trading days, with the monthly moving average slope improving to above negative 1.0%, before the technical picture clears for new entry.
CounterMACD is improving despite the death cross, and RSI at a low level suggests the stock may be approaching a tradeable technical reversal even within the current downtrend.
A put-to-call ratio of 2.62 — more than 2.5 puts for every call — combined with implied volatility of 68% and the stock trading above its maximum pain price of $95 suggests options market participants hold strong bearish views on the near-term direction.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 within 3 months, indicating a reduction in bearish hedging as the technical picture improves.
CounterHigh put-to-call ratios in distribution companies often reflect institutional portfolio hedges rather than directional bets; they do not always predict price direction.
Despite a below-floor composite quality score, SiteOne achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and free cash flow quality score of 7.9 out of 10, indicating that the financial health fundamentals are stronger than the overall quality composite suggests.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 12 months, confirming balance sheet and profitability discipline is maintained.
CounterA high Piotroski score alongside an operating margin score of 0.0 is contradictory; the thin operating margins may not be sustainable if revenue growth stalls in the landscape distribution market.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 54%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $119,146 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.3 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.89
Upside
+34.1%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 7.4; weakest: Momentum at 1.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Sentiment at 7.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Analyst Upside With Improving EstimatesTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $120, more than 14% below the current target of $139.83, indicating analysts are reducing their expectations.
- P2Confirmed Death Cross Downtrend
Trip ifStock price drops below $95, more than 11% below current price of $107.26, deepening the death cross downtrend beyond a key support level.
- P3Elevated Put Call Options Caution
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 4.0, indicating bearish options positioning is intensifying beyond the already elevated current level of 2.62.
- P4Strong Piotroski Despite Quality Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in the next annual review, indicating financial health metrics are beginning to deteriorate alongside the weak operating margin score.