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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants in 175+ countries (44% in the U.S.), enabling online storefronts, physical retail, and multi-channel selling. Revenue comprises subscription solutions and merchant solutions, primarily Shopify... Read more

$104.10+33.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#47 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.96%
Stop $96.81Target $139.43(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$151.56+45.6%45 analysts
$139.43our TP
$104.10price
$151.56mean
$200

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Shopify Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 34%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)99.0
P/E (Fwd)43.6
Mkt Cap$131.1B
EV/EBITDA58.4
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth34.3%
Beta2.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts56

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$60-42.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Forward Pe
2.6
Ps
3.0
Peg Ratio
4.1
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 43.6xPEG: 2.41

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $94.00Resistance $130.30

Price Targets

$97
$139
A.Upside+33.9%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $96.81. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHOP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $139.43 (+33.9% upside). Prior stop was $96.81. Stop-loss: $96.81.

What are the risks of investing in SHOP?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?

Shopify Inc. trades at a P/E of 99.0 (forward 43.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHOP?

56 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $152.

What does Shopify Inc. do?Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants in 175+ countries (44% in the U.S.),...

Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants in 175+ countries (44% in the U.S.), enabling online storefronts, physical retail, and multi-channel selling. Revenue comprises subscription solutions and merchant solutions, primarily Shopify Payments processing fees; no single merchant has ever exceeded 5% of total revenues.

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