Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social media, and AI platforms; as of December 31, 2025, 44% of merchants were in the U.S., 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC. Revenue comes from subscription plans (Basic,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $111.48. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $146.74 (+22.4% upside). Prior stop was $111.48. Stop-loss: $111.48.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Shopify Inc. trades at a P/E of 127.6 (forward 52.8). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
56 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $160.
What does Shopify Inc. do?Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social...
Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social media, and AI platforms; as of December 31, 2025, 44% of merchants were in the U.S., 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC. Revenue comes from subscription plans (Basic, Grow, Shopify Plus) and merchant solutions primarily via Shopify Payments; subscriptions exceeded 90% of total revenues for 2025 and 2024. No single merchant has represented more than 5% of total revenues in any reporting period.