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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social media, and AI platforms; as of December 31, 2025, 44% of merchants were in the U.S., 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC. Revenue comes from subscription plans (Basic,... Read more

$119.70+22.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#91 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $111.48Target $146.74(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$159.50+33.2%46 analysts
$146.74our TP
$119.70price
$159.50mean
$110
$200

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)127.6
P/E (Fwd)52.8
Mkt Cap$157.8B
EV/EBITDA79.0
Profit Mgn10.7%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth30.6%
Beta2.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts56

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.15bearish
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$60-49.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.9
Forward Pe
2.2
Peg Ratio
4.1
Analyst Target
7.5
Forward P/E: 52.8xPEG: 2.41Expensive valuation

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 5 days
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $108.95Resistance $137.30

Price Targets

$111
$147
A.Upside+22.6%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $111.48. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHOP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $146.74 (+22.4% upside). Prior stop was $111.48. Stop-loss: $111.48.

What are the risks of investing in SHOP?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?

Shopify Inc. trades at a P/E of 127.6 (forward 52.8). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHOP?

56 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $160.

What does Shopify Inc. do?Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social...

Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social media, and AI platforms; as of December 31, 2025, 44% of merchants were in the U.S., 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC. Revenue comes from subscription plans (Basic, Grow, Shopify Plus) and merchant solutions primarily via Shopify Payments; subscriptions exceeded 90% of total revenues for 2025 and 2024. No single merchant has represented more than 5% of total revenues in any reporting period.

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