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SHOPShopify Inc.Sell6.0·$113.23+0.66%
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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $113.23: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation.

Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants across 175+ countries, earning revenue from platform subscriptions (Basic, Grow, and Shopify Plus plans) and transaction-based merchant solutions, primarily Shopify Payments processing and currency... Read more

$113.23+21.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#32 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.86%
Stop $105.30Target $137.80(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$149.78+32.3%45 analysts
$137.80our TP
$113.23price
$149.78mean
$200

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $113.23: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Shopify Inc.

About Shopify Inc.

Shopify's all-in-one commerce platform served millions of merchants across more than 175 countries at December 31, 2025, with 44% of merchants in the United States, 31% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 16% in Asia Pacific, Australia and China. More than 21,000 apps were available in the Shopify App Store at year-end 2025. The company employed approximately 7,600 people in a remote-first environment, gathering in-person periodically at team events and a 2025 company-wide summit held in Toronto.

Shopify generates revenue through two streams: subscription solutions — including platform fees for Basic, Grow, Advanced, and Shopify Plus plans, POS Pro subscriptions, app sales, domain names, and themes — and merchant solutions centered on payment processing and currency conversion fees from Shopify Payments. While most merchants subscribe to Basic and Grow plans, the majority of gross merchandise volume is generated by Shopify Plus and enterprise merchants, who subscribe at rates several times that of the Advanced plan. Additional merchant solutions include Shopify Capital lending, referral fees, shipping label sales, POS hardware, and App Store advertising. No single merchant has ever represented more than 5% of total revenues, and the merchant base spans more than 175 countries with no material customer concentration. The market is described as competitive and highly fragmented, with competition from ecommerce software vendors, payment processors, POS providers, marketplaces, and alternative lenders.

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Shopify is subject to financial services regulation across multiple jurisdictions as its payments and lending solutions expand, including U.S. Treasury OFAC sanctions, BIS export controls, and Canadian OSFI sanctions programs. Data privacy obligations span the EU General Data Protection Regulation, China's Personal Information Protection Law, Brazil's General Data Protection Law, the California Consumer Privacy Act as amended by the California Privacy Rights Act, and other international regimes, each carrying significant non-compliance penalties. Platform infrastructure is concentrated on Google Cloud for most operations, meaning a service disruption at that provider may impact merchant availability and reputational standing — a risk compounded by the company's history of DDoS attack exposure noted in the 10-K.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Shopify Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Expensive valuation
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)110.3
P/E (Fwd)48.3
Mkt Cap$146.0B
EV/EBITDA65.4
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth34.3%
Beta2.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts54

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$260+129.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
2.2
Forward Pe
2.4
Peg Ratio
4.4
Analyst Target
7.5
Forward P/E: 48.3xPEG: 2.10

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.4
Bollinger
3.9
Support Resistance
4.5
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $99.23Resistance $124.62

Price Targets

$105
$138
A.Upside+21.7%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts54
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$150

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $113.23: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $105.30. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHOP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $137.80 (+21.7% upside). Prior stop was $105.30. Stop-loss: $105.30.

What are the risks of investing in SHOP?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?

Shopify Inc. trades at a P/E of 110.3 (forward 48.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHOP?

54 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $150.

What does Shopify Inc. do?Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants across 175+ countries, earning revenue...

Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants across 175+ countries, earning revenue from platform subscriptions (Basic, Grow, and Shopify Plus plans) and transaction-based merchant solutions, primarily Shopify Payments processing and currency conversion fees. No single merchant has ever represented more than 5% of total revenues; the company had approximately 7,600 employees worldwide at December 31, 2025.

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