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Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $61.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Somnigroup International owns Tempur Sealy (Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster brands) and Mattress Firm (2,100+ U.S. stores), plus Dreams in the U.K., operating 2,800+ retail stores globally after completing the $5.1B Mattress Firm acquisition in Feb 2025. Revenue flows... Read more

$61.49+37.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 11 Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.87%
IncomeYield1.09%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout24.80%sustainable
Stop $59.17Target $84.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$97.25+58.2%8 analysts
$84.61our TP
$61.49price
$97.25mean
$115

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $61.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 25, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Somnigroup International Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.9
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$13.1B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE17.7%
Rev Growth12.3%
Beta1.25
Dividend1.09%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.00Resistance $82.76

Price Targets

$59
$85
A.Upside+37.6%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $61.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 25, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $59.17. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.61 (+37.6% upside). Prior stop was $59.17. Stop-loss: $59.17.

What are the risks of investing in SGI?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Is SGI overvalued or undervalued?

Somnigroup International Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.9 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGI?

14 analysts cover SGI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $97.

What does Somnigroup International Inc. do?Somnigroup International owns Tempur Sealy (Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster brands) and Mattress Firm (2,100+...

Somnigroup International owns Tempur Sealy (Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster brands) and Mattress Firm (2,100+ U.S. stores), plus Dreams in the U.K., operating 2,800+ retail stores globally after completing the $5.1B Mattress Firm acquisition in Feb 2025. Revenue flows through Mattress Firm, Tempur Sealy North America, and Tempur Sealy International segments; direct channel was 63.5% of net sales in 2025.

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