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SFIXStitch Fix, Inc.Hold5.1·$2.99
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Stitch Fix has posted a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with sharply rising estimates, but quality sits below the engine's floor, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death-cross technical block, and insiders have been steady net sellers.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below FloorDeteriorating
  • Fcf Positive Moderate MarginsStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Death CrossImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Earnings in 0 days (2026-09-23). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $399M below $400M minimum.

Fix is the leading online personal styling service that helps people discover the styles they will love that fit perfectly so they always look - and feel - their best.

$2.99+33.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#16 of 16 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.85%
Stop $2.78Target $4.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$4.60+53.8%5 analysts
$4.00our TP
$2.99price
$4.60mean
$6

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $399M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Market cap $399M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23

Recent Developments — Stitch Fix, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-23T15:56:59Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 23, 2026today· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $399M below $400M minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-38.0
Mkt Cap$399M
EV/EBITDA-2107.8
Profit Mgn-1.4%
ROE-9.5%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta2.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C14.00bearish
IV98%elevated
Max Pain$3-16.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Days To Cover
1.2
Beta
2.4
Volatility
2.7
Short Interest
3.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Debt Equity
8.5
Elevated put/call: 14.00High IV: 98%Above max pain $2

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.5
Moat
4.6
Gross Margin
4.7
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 3%, FCF yield 8.9%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesINSIDER 0.53%=EXTREMEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.8>=5.5A.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.81Resistance $3.30

Price Targets

$3
$4
A.Upside+33.8%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $399M below $400M minimum
! Insider activity: 0.53%=extreme
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-23 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFIX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $399M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Market cap $399M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $4.00 (+33.8%), stop $2.78 (−7.6%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.00 (+33.8% upside). Target $4.00 (+33.8%), stop $2.78 (−7.6%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $2.78.

What are the risks of investing in SFIX?

Market cap $399M below $400M minimum.

Is SFIX overvalued or undervalued?

Stitch Fix, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -38.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SFIX?

12 analysts cover SFIX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Stitch Fix, Inc. do?Fix is the leading online personal styling service that helps people discover the styles they will love that fit...

Fix is the leading online personal styling service that helps people discover the styles they will love that fit perfectly so they always look - and feel - their best.

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