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CALCaleres, Inc.Sell5.5·$12.95
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Caleres trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but negative cash conversion, high short interest and weak momentum keep quality below the engine's floor.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Record↓Deteriorating
  • Poor Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Deep Value Multiple→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 11, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Apr 2, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Caleres, Inc. (CAL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.95: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.

Caleres, Inc. is a global footwear company operating retail stores and e-commerce through two segments — Famous Footwear (821 stores) and Brand Portfolio, which designs and distributes owned and licensed brands including Sam Edelman, Naturalizer, Allen Edmonds, and the newly... Read more

$12.95+11.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#10 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-4.14%
IncomeYield2.16%(5y avg 1.23%)Payout18.30%sustainable
Stop $12.04Analyst target $14.45(−15% haircut)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst consensus$17.00+31.3%2 analysts
$14.45Analyst target
$12.95price
$17.00mean
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.95: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-24
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 10, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.5
P/E (Fwd)5.9
Mkt Cap$447M
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth5.6%
Beta0.74
Dividend2.16%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWSupplierNike, Skechers, and adidas24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Products purchased from three key third-party suppliers (Nike, Skechers and adidas) represented approximately 24% of consolidated net sales in 2025.'
  • LOWSupplierChina (sourcing)20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 20% of the footwear we sourced in 2025 was from China.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOW
    Daniel L. Karpel, interim CFO since January 21, 2026, was appointed permanent Chief Financial Officer effective May 20, 2026, and will serve as principal financial and accounting officer. Compensation includes a $550,000 base salary and 65% target bonus.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.9
Roa
1.2
Operating Margin
1.3
Roe
2.6
Current Ratio
4.3
Gross Margin
5.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -35% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.82Resistance $13.61

Price Targets

$12
$14
A.Upside+11.6%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-10 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.95: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.04. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAL stock price target?

Analyst target: $14.45 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $12.04. Stop-loss: $12.04.

What are the risks of investing in CAL?

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is CAL overvalued or undervalued?

Caleres, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 5.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAL?

6 analysts cover CAL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Caleres, Inc. do?Caleres, Inc. is a global footwear company operating retail stores and e-commerce through two segments — Famous...

Caleres, Inc. is a global footwear company operating retail stores and e-commerce through two segments — Famous Footwear (821 stores) and Brand Portfolio, which designs and distributes owned and licensed brands including Sam Edelman, Naturalizer, Allen Edmonds, and the newly acquired Stuart Weitzman. Women's footwear made up 61% of 2025 net sales, and the company's top three branded suppliers — Nike, Skechers, and adidas — accounted for approximately 24% of consolidated net sales.

Related stocks: BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) · REF (Reformation Inc.) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) · AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.)
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