Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $242.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.95; Negative price momentum.
The Boston Beer Company produces flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea (largest-selling FMB in the US since 2022), Samuel Adams, Truly Hard Seltzer, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head. The company is the... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $242.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.95; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States94%10-K Item 1A: 'In the United States, where approximately 94% of its beverages are sold, the Company sells most of its alcohol beverages to independent beer Distributors'
- LOWSupplierCity Brewing Company14%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of the Company's annual domestic shipment volume was produced under production service agreements with City Brewing Company, LLC and its subsidiaries'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOWMichael Spillane will not stand for re-election as Boston Beer director and will retire at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to disagreement. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOWBoston Beer disclosed FY2025 NEO compensation arrangements including bonus details for CEO C. James Koch and others. Routine compensatory disclosure.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUMLesya Lysyj stepped down as Boston Beer CMO effective March 6, 2026, remaining as advisor through September 2026. Separation agreement includes salary continuation and 2025 bonus payment. No successor CMO named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $242.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.95; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $225.21. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $259.17 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $225.21. Stop-loss: $225.21.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.0%); Target reached (-15.2% upside); Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SAM with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $236.
What does Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) do?The Boston Beer Company produces flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands...
The Boston Beer Company produces flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea (largest-selling FMB in the US since 2022), Samuel Adams, Truly Hard Seltzer, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head. The company is the second-largest Beyond beer supplier with approximately 20% market share; approximately 86% of 2025 volume is in Beyond beer.