Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $173.95: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Boston Beer Company brews and markets craft beer, hard seltzer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head, selling predominantly in the United States through 300+ wholesale distributors. In 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $173.95: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)
Latest news
- Sam Altman Can’t Escape Controversy at OpenAI and It’s Giving the Stock Market Jitters - Barron's — Barron's negative
- Boston Beer (SAM) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- UBS reiterates Boston Beer stock rating ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- TGL stock soars after reappointment of former CEO Sam Teo - MSN — MSN positive
- Skylands Capital LLC Makes New Investment in The Boston Beer Company, Inc. $SAM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWSupplierCity Brewing Company14%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of the Company's annual domestic shipment volume was produced under production service agreements with City Brewing Company, LLC and its subsidiaries'
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle sourced flavorings10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's beverages include many unique and proprietary flavors and combinations of flavors and some of these flavorings are single sourced.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOWDirector Michael Spillane notified Board he will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting and will retire. No disagreement with company operations, policies, or practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUMCMO Lesya Lysyj agreed to step down effective March 6, 2026, remaining in advisory capacity through September 30, 2026. Separation agreement provides 13 weeks salary, 2025 cash bonus, and continued health benefits. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Revenue shrinking — -4.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $173.95: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $164.88. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $200.44 (+15.2% upside). Prior stop was $164.88. Stop-loss: $164.88.
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover SAM with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $230.
What does Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) do?Boston Beer Company brews and markets craft beer, hard seltzer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including...
Boston Beer Company brews and markets craft beer, hard seltzer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head, selling predominantly in the United States through 300+ wholesale distributors. In 2025 approximately 86% of domestic volume was produced at company-owned breweries, with the balance at third-party facilities including City Brewing Company.