Value
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
RSKD · Why this verdict
Why Riskified (RSKD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Riskified shows a bullish golden-cross breakout, but below-floor business quality, extreme insider selling, and elevated put/call hedging argue for caution over the technical setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Riskified's business quality score of 3.5 sits below the 4.0 floor, driving the exit-position recommendation despite the stock being free-cash-flow positive. Warnings | The quality score should climb back above 4.0 as margins improve beyond the current moderate levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRiskified is already FCF-positive with a 12% FCF margin, a reasonable base for a mid-cap software company that may not warrant an exit purely on the quality score. | ||
Insiders sold $10,999,063 of stock over the past 90 days across 28 separate transactions, equal to 1.6% of market cap, a level classified as extreme. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should moderate toward net-neutral over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavy insider selling at a small-cap company can reflect routine diversification or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a negative signal about the business. | ||
Riskified is above all major moving averages in a golden cross with bullish MACD and an RSI of 64, a breakout pattern on the technical read. Chart pattern detection | Price should continue to hold above its moving averages and extend the breakout over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA technical breakout can reverse quickly when it coincides with extreme insider selling and a below-floor quality score, both of which argue against the bullish technical picture. | ||
The put/call ratio of 1.50 is elevated, signaling options traders are positioning defensively even as the stock trades above its max pain level of $2. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as bearish hedging activity fades. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can also reflect routine institutional hedging rather than a directional bearish view on the stock. | ||
Riskified's business quality score of 3.5 sits below the 4.0 floor, driving the exit-position recommendation despite the stock being free-cash-flow positive.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb back above 4.0 as margins improve beyond the current moderate levels.
CounterRiskified is already FCF-positive with a 12% FCF margin, a reasonable base for a mid-cap software company that may not warrant an exit purely on the quality score.
Insiders sold $10,999,063 of stock over the past 90 days across 28 separate transactions, equal to 1.6% of market cap, a level classified as extreme.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate toward net-neutral over the next two quarters.
CounterHeavy insider selling at a small-cap company can reflect routine diversification or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a negative signal about the business.
Riskified is above all major moving averages in a golden cross with bullish MACD and an RSI of 64, a breakout pattern on the technical read.
Tripped→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should continue to hold above its moving averages and extend the breakout over the next 12 months.
CounterA technical breakout can reverse quickly when it coincides with extreme insider selling and a below-floor quality score, both of which argue against the bullish technical picture.
The put/call ratio of 1.50 is elevated, signaling options traders are positioning defensively even as the stock trades above its max pain level of $2.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as bearish hedging activity fades.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can also reflect routine institutional hedging rather than a directional bearish view on the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 5.1%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 9.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.5x avg) on up move
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.2 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $22,700,946 (2.684% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 169%
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:2.68%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.59
Upside
-23.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.35>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of -1.59.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.4, Catalyst at 8.2, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Quality at 3.9, Technical at 4.0, and Growth at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifThe quality score stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 2% of market cap over a rolling 90-day window.
- P3Golden Cross Technical SetupTripped
Trip ifPrice fails to close above the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging Activity
Trip ifThe put/call ratio stays above 1.5 for 2 consecutive months.