Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance.
Radian Group is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer with $282.5B of insurance in force as of December 31, 2025, protecting GSEs and lenders against defaults on residential first-lien loans. In February 2026 it completed the $1.67B acquisition of Inigo (Lloyd's specialty... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMortgage Insurance10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, we had one reportable business segment, Mortgage Insurance.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWEric R. Ray (SVP, Chief Digital Officer) provided notice of retirement effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOWAmendment: Board approved compensation for Daniel Kobell as Interim CFO — $500K base salary, 100% STI target, $1M LTI target for 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUMSumita Pandit (President and CFO) involuntarily terminated effective February 12, 2026. Daniel Kobell appointed Interim CFO; Robert Quigley elevated to Senior EVP. No disagreement on financial matters cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-09Item 5.02LOWSeraina Macia appointed as new director on February 9, 2026, increasing Board from 11 to 12 directors. No arrangement or understanding with any other person cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $35.25. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.65 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $35.25. Stop-loss: $35.25.
Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Radian Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover RDN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.
What does Radian Group Inc. do?Radian Group is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer with $282.5B of insurance in force as of December 31, 2025,...
Radian Group is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer with $282.5B of insurance in force as of December 31, 2025, protecting GSEs and lenders against defaults on residential first-lien loans. In February 2026 it completed the $1.67B acquisition of Inigo (Lloyd's specialty insurer), beginning a strategic transformation into a global multi-line specialty insurer.