Radian Group is a high-quality specialty insurance business with a wide economic moat, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 59% revenue growth, and an elite Rule of 40 score of 79 — but negative price momentum, concentrated exposure to the mortgage insurance segment, and elevated implied volatility of 91% temper the near-term entry case despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Elite Quality→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Consistent↑Improving
- Mortgage Insurance Segment Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Wait for pullback to $33.42. At $35.84 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $33.42 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 3.3%.
Radian Group is a U.S. private mortgage insurer operating a single Mortgage Insurance segment, with $282.5 billion insurance in force and $74.7 billion risk in force at December 31, 2025. Premiums on $55.2 billion of new insurance written in 2025 generated $618 million net... Read more
Wait for pullback to $33.42. At $35.84 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $33.42 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 3.3%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and no CEO selling and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Radian Group Inc.
About Radian Group Inc.
Radian Group's Mortgage Insurance segment earned pretax income from continuing operations of $791 million and net income from continuing operations of $618 million in 2025, on $55.2 billion of new insurance written—up from $52.0 billion in 2024. Insurance in force reached $282.5 billion and risk in force $74.7 billion at December 31, 2025. The company's $1.67 billion acquisition of Inigo, a Lloyd's specialty insurer, closed February 2, 2026, marking the beginning of a strategic transformation into a global multi-line specialty insurer.
Radian earns revenue through mortgage insurance premiums on residential first-lien loans with down payments below 20%. The GSEs are the primary beneficiaries of private mortgage insurance and impose PMIERs eligibility requirements; failure by Radian Guaranty to maintain that eligibility would effectively prohibit the company from writing new insurance on loans purchased by the GSEs, which represent the vast majority of the conventional mortgage secondary market. At December 31, 2025, 72% of total first-lien insurance in force was underwritten on a delegated basis and 25% on a non-delegated basis. Radian distributes mortgage credit risk through three quota-share reinsurance agreements (the 2025, 2026, and 2027 QSR Agreements, ceding portions of new insurance written from July 2025 through June 2028) and an excess-of-loss reinsurance facility with a panel of highly rated providers. Radian Guaranty maintained a PMIERs Cushion of $1.6 billion at December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
The PMIERs Cushion declined from $2.2 billion at December 31, 2024 to $1.6 billion at December 31, 2025, with the intercompany note used to partially fund the Inigo acquisition reducing Radian Guaranty's remaining buffer. The 10-K identifies GSE reform as a bilateral risk: changes to the GSEs' charters, business practices, or role in the housing finance market could significantly impact Radian's Mortgage Insurance business, while GSE privatization scenarios could either disrupt the PMIERs framework or expand the addressable market for private mortgage insurance. The company's reinsurance panel agreements partially offset this concentration by ceding portions of new insurance written through June 2028.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From Radian Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Radian Group Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS How Investors May Respond To Radian Group (RDN) Leadership Shakeup - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 31, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Radian Group (NYSE:RDN) Stock Crosses Below 200 Day Moving Average - Here's Why - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Radian Announces Executive Leadership Appointments to Advance Growth Strategy - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Radian (RDN) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Should Value Investors Buy Radian Group (RDN) Stock? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 14, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:29:29Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerGSEs10-K Item 1: 'the GSEs, who are the primary beneficiaries of our mortgage insurance'
- HIGHProductMortgage Insurance segment10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, we had one reportable business segment, Mortgage Insurance'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMMichael Weinbach appointed CEO-Elect effective June 1, 2026, and CEO effective August 13, 2026. Richard G. Thornberry retiring as CEO effective August 12, 2026; remains as Strategic Advisor through December 31, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-27Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved 2026 Equity Compensation Plan on May 21, 2026. Board granted annual LTI awards to named executive officers including CEO Thornberry, Interim CFO Kobell, COO Dickerson, General Counsel Hoffman, and CDO Ray. Routine annual compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Digital Officer Eric R. Ray notified Company of retirement effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW8-K/A amending February 12, 2026 filing. Compensation terms approved for Interim CFO Daniel Kobell: $500,000 annual salary effective February 21, 2026, 100% STI target, and $1,000,000 LTI target for 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $33.42. At $35.84 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $33.42 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 3.3%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $37.04 (+3.3%), stop $31.96 (−12.1%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.04 (+3.3% upside). Target $37.04 (+3.3%), stop $31.96 (−12.1%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $31.96.
Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 3.3%.
Radian Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts rate RDN, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $43.
What does Radian Group Inc. do?Radian Group is a U.S. private mortgage insurer operating a single Mortgage Insurance segment, with $282.5 billion...
Radian Group is a U.S. private mortgage insurer operating a single Mortgage Insurance segment, with $282.5 billion insurance in force and $74.7 billion risk in force at December 31, 2025. Premiums on $55.2 billion of new insurance written in 2025 generated $618 million net income from continuing operations. The company acquired Lloyd's specialty insurer Inigo on February 2, 2026, beginning a transition to global multi-line specialty insurance.