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Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Wait for pullback to $35.41. BUY gates pass at $37.18, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (4.6% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $35.41 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Radian Group is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer, with $282.5B of insurance in force and $74.7B direct risk in force as of December 31, 2025, through its Mortgage Insurance segment. It earns premiums from lenders and borrowers on residential first-lien loans with LTV... Read more

$37.18+7.4% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.56%
IncomeYield2.74%(5y avg 3.02%)Payout23.78%sustainable
Entry $35.41(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $33.33Target $37.82(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$42.40+14.0%5 analysts
$37.82our TP
$37.18price
$42.40mean
$48

Wait for pullback to $35.41. BUY gates pass at $37.18, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (4.6% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $35.41 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.5% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Radian Group Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.7
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn41.0%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth58.8%
Beta0.76
Dividend2.74%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$32-13.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02HIGH
    Effective February 12, 2026, Sumita Pandit (President and CFO) was involuntarily terminated. Daniel Kobell appointed Interim CFO; Robert J. Quigley elevated to Senior EVP Finance. No permanent CFO successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment to Feb 12, 2026 8-K: On March 30, 2026, Compensation Committee approved compensation for Interim CFO Daniel Kobell: $500K base salary, 100% STI target, $1M 2026 LTI target.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    On April 20, 2026, Eric R. Ray (Senior EVP, Chief Digital Officer) notified Company of decision to retire effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.96Resistance $38.59

Price Targets

$33
$35
$38
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $35.41. BUY gates pass at $37.18, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (4.6% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $35.41 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.5% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $37.82 (+1.7%), stop $33.33 (−11.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

What is the RDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.82 (+7.4% upside). Target $37.82 (+1.7%), stop $33.33 (−11.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $33.33.

What are the risks of investing in RDN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away).

Is RDN overvalued or undervalued?

Radian Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RDN?

9 analysts cover RDN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Radian Group Inc. do?Radian Group is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer, with $282.5B of insurance in force and $74.7B direct risk in...

Radian Group is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer, with $282.5B of insurance in force and $74.7B direct risk in force as of December 31, 2025, through its Mortgage Insurance segment. It earns premiums from lenders and borrowers on residential first-lien loans with LTV >80%, subject to GSE PMIERs eligibility requirements. In February 2026, Radian acquired Inigo (a Lloyd's specialty insurer) to become a global multi-line specialty insurer, and is divesting its Mortgage Conduit, Title, and Real Estate Services businesses.

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