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Fidelity National Financial, In (FNF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $52.43, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Fidelity National Financial is the largest U.S. title insurance company, holding 32% of the market through Q3 2025 via five underwriters including Fidelity National Title and Chicago Title. FNF also owns approximately 70% of F&G Annuities & Life, which issues fixed indexed... Read more

$52.43+7.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
Stop $50.16Target $56.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$64.60+23.2%5 analysts
$56.20our TP
$52.43price
$64.60mean
$71

Sell if holding. At $52.43, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.2%
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$14.2B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE7.8%
Rev Growth12.3%
Beta1.06
Dividend3.98%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.80bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$40-23.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyKubera
    10-K Item 1A: 'F&G issued a variable note purchase agreement to Kubera for which it may be liable to fund any shortfall in Kubera's ability to pay its obligations under the amended reinsurance agreement with FGL Insurance'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
6.9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
2.3
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
10.0
Overbought bear rally (RSI 81)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $45.20Resistance $52.94

Price Targets

$50
$56
A.Upside+7.2%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FNF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $52.43, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $50.16. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FNF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.20 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $50.16. Stop-loss: $50.16.

What are the risks of investing in FNF?

Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is FNF overvalued or undervalued?

Fidelity National Financial, In trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FNF?

9 analysts cover FNF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Fidelity National Financial, In do?Fidelity National Financial is the largest U.S. title insurance company, holding 32% of the market through Q3 2025 via...

Fidelity National Financial is the largest U.S. title insurance company, holding 32% of the market through Q3 2025 via five underwriters including Fidelity National Title and Chicago Title. FNF also owns approximately 70% of F&G Annuities & Life, which issues fixed indexed annuities, MYGAs, IUL insurance, and pension risk transfer solutions.

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