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RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.Sell5.8·$35.44+0.28%
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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Sell if holding. At $35.44, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Product: E&S market (78.0%).

Ryan Specialty is the second-largest U.S. P&C insurance wholesale broker and largest U.S. P&C managing underwriter, placing 78% of 2025 premium volume in the E&S market across Wholesale Brokerage ($1.60 billion, 53.4% of net commissions), Underwriting Management ($1.02 billion,... Read more

$35.44+7.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.38%
IncomeYield1.47%Payout59.76%sustainable
Stop $32.96Target $38.22(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$42.47+19.8%17 analysts
$38.22our TP
$35.44price
$42.47mean
$76

Sell if holding. At $35.44, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Product: E&S market (78.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.

About Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.

Ryan Specialty's three specialty segments generated $2.99 billion in net commission and fees during 2025, growing 21.3% year-over-year. Wholesale Brokerage contributed $1.60 billion (53.4%), Underwriting Management $1.02 billion (34.2%), and Binding Authority $370.2 million (12.4%). The company accessed over 35,000 retail brokerage firms and 350 insurance carriers through its distribution network, with 78% of premiums placed in the E&S market in 2025.

Ryan Specialty earns commissions and fees as a wholesale intermediary between retail brokers and insurance carriers, with no retail operations of its own — a structure the company describes as free from channel conflicts with its retail trading partners. Placement flows through 700-plus Producers in Wholesale Brokerage and Binding Authority, and through 39 MGAs and MGUs in Underwriting Management, which designs and underwrites coverage on behalf of carriers. The top five retail brokers represented 25.2% of 2025 revenues, while the top five insurance carriers (excluding Lloyd's syndicates) accounted for 20.6%. Revenue grew 21.3% in 2025 and 21.1% in 2024, partly fueled by acquisitions — targets in 2025 had trailing twelve-month revenues exceeding $125 million prior to closing, adding to the more than 60 firms partnered through acquisition since inception. The U.S. E&S market, which comprised $130 billion in direct written premium in 2024 and grew at a 10.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2024 versus 4.4% for the Admitted market, provides the structural tailwind underpinning Ryan Specialty's growth thesis.

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Counterparty concentration at the retail broker level warrants attention: the top five retail brokers supplied 25.2% of 2025 revenues, easing modestly from 26.9% in 2024 as broker consolidation continues to concentrate submission flow among fewer relationships. The 10-K notes that if dependence on a smaller number of trading partners increases — through termination, consolidation, or otherwise — the company may become more vulnerable to adverse changes in those relationships, particularly in states where a small number of brokers dominate a geographic area or lines of business.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

From Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: E&S market (78.0%)
Thin upside margin: 7.9%
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.1
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta0.64
Dividend1.47%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$25-29.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 5 retail brokers25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top five retail brokers with which we place business represented 25.2% and 26.9% of our revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • LOWcounterpartytop 5 insurance carriers21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top five insurance carriers (excluding all Lloyd's syndicates combined) for which we place business represented an aggregate of 20.6% and 20.9% of our revenues'
  • HIGHProductE&S market78%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 78% of the total premiums we placed were in the E&S market.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
0.8
Support Resistance
1.5
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.67Resistance $36.27

Price Targets

$33
$38
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RYAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $35.44, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Product: E&S market (78.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $32.96. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RYAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.22 (+7.8% upside). Prior stop was $32.96. Stop-loss: $32.96.

What are the risks of investing in RYAN?

Concentration risk — Product: E&S market (78.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5.

Is RYAN overvalued or undervalued?

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.1 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RYAN?

26 analysts cover RYAN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. do?Ryan Specialty is the second-largest U.S. P&C insurance wholesale broker and largest U.S. P&C managing underwriter,...

Ryan Specialty is the second-largest U.S. P&C insurance wholesale broker and largest U.S. P&C managing underwriter, placing 78% of 2025 premium volume in the E&S market across Wholesale Brokerage ($1.60 billion, 53.4% of net commissions), Underwriting Management ($1.02 billion, 34.2%), and Binding Authority ($370 million, 12.4%). The company earns commissions and fees with no retail operations, avoiding channel conflicts with its retail broker clients.

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