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Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

AXIS Capital is a global specialty insurer and reinsurer headquartered in Bermuda, writing $9.6 billion in gross premiums across insurance (professional lines, property, liability, cyber, marine) and reinsurance segments in 2025. Three brokers—Marsh & McLennan (25%), Aon (24%),... Read more

$100.06+6.4% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#3 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.91%
IncomeYield1.75%(5y avg 2.64%)Payout13.15%sustainable
Stop $95.08Target $106.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$122.36+22.3%11 analysts
$106.46our TP
$100.06price
$122.36mean
$137

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.8Qual4.8Grw7.2Mom7.4Sent6.6Ins5.0Peer5.9Tech5.3Risk8.36.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Axis Capital Holdings Limited

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn16.0%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth8.0%
Beta0.55
Dividend1.75%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyMarsh & McLennan (reinsurance distribution)25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc.| $| 627,507 | | | 25 | %'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyAon plc (reinsurance distribution)24%
    10-K Item 1: 'Aon plc| 583,418 | | | 24 | %'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyArthur J. Gallagher (reinsurance distribution)23%
    10-K Item 1: 'Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.| 570,384 | | | 23 | %'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyAmWINS Group (insurance distribution)12%
    10-K Item 1: 'AmWINS Group Inc.| $| 831,009 | | | 12 | %'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyRyan Specialty Group (insurance distribution)11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Ryan Specialty Group| 784,743 | | | 11 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Director Thomas Ramey retired from AXIS Capital Board effective February 20, 2026. No reason cited beyond his decision to retire.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Peter Vogt departing April 1, 2026, earlier than originally planned year-end, following successful transition of responsibilities to incoming CFO Matthew Kirk who assumed the role March 31, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $96.57Resistance $102.66

Price Targets

$95
$106
A.Upside+6.4%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $106.46 (+6.4%), stop $95.08 (−5.2%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.46 (+6.4% upside). Target $106.46 (+6.4%), stop $95.08 (−5.2%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $95.08.

What are the risks of investing in AXS?

Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Is AXS overvalued or undervalued?

Axis Capital Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AXS?

17 analysts cover AXS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $122.

What does Axis Capital Holdings Limited do?AXIS Capital is a global specialty insurer and reinsurer headquartered in Bermuda, writing $9.6 billion in gross...

AXIS Capital is a global specialty insurer and reinsurer headquartered in Bermuda, writing $9.6 billion in gross premiums across insurance (professional lines, property, liability, cyber, marine) and reinsurance segments in 2025. Three brokers—Marsh & McLennan (25%), Aon (24%), and Arthur J. Gallagher (23%)—account for 72% of reinsurance segment gross premiums written. At December 31, 2025, common shareholders' equity was $5.8 billion.

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