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NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $38.70. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $40.41. Engine's entry $38.70 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC and Re One subsidiaries, approved to insure loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with $221.4B of primary insurance-in-force and 2,193 customer lenders as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from mortgage... Read more

$40.41+7.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
Entry $38.70(50-day MA)Stop $37.02Target $41.42(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$46.14+14.2%7 analysts
$41.42our TP
$40.41price
$46.14mean
$50

Wait for pullback to $38.70. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $40.41. Engine's entry $38.70 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.4
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn55.1%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV89%elevated
Max Pain$30-25.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMregulatoryWisconsin OCI
    10-K Item 1: 'NMIC and Re One are domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded to ten members; Renu Agrawal appointed as independent director effective Feb 12, 2026. Appointed to Audit Committee and Risk Committee. Standard non-employee director compensation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.01Resistance $42.27

Price Targets

$37
$39
$41
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMIH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $38.70. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $40.41. Engine's entry $38.70 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $41.42 (+2.5%), stop $37.02 (−9.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMIH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.42 (+7.0% upside). Target $41.42 (+2.5%), stop $37.02 (−9.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $37.02.

What are the risks of investing in NMIH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NMIH overvalued or undervalued?

NMI Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NMIH?

12 analysts cover NMIH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $46.

What does NMI Holdings Inc do?NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC and Re One subsidiaries, approved to insure loans...

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC and Re One subsidiaries, approved to insure loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with $221.4B of primary insurance-in-force and 2,193 customer lenders as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from mortgage insurance premiums on high-LTV residential loans; no individual customer accounted for more than 10% of 2025 revenues.

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