Skip to main content

NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Wait for pullback to $35.01. At $37.60 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Negative momentum.

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through its subsidiary NMIC, an approved insurer in all 50 states and D.C., underwriting high-LTV residential mortgage loans sold primarily to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As of December 31, 2025, NMIC had $221.4B of primary... Read more

$37.60+10.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield10.90%
Entry $35.01(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $32.70Target $40.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$46.17+22.8%6 analysts
$40.17our TP
$37.60price
$46.17mean
$49

Wait for pullback to $35.01. At $37.60 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 49% MoS with quality 8.0. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.3Qual8.0Grw4.0Mom1.9Sent6.8Ins3.4Peer5.5Tech7.1Risk7.75.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — NMI Holdings Inc

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.8%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA (2d, -2.5%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.7
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn53.8%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$45+19.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.0
Macd
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.83Resistance $42.27

Price Targets

$33
$35
$40
A.Upside+6.8%
A.R:R1.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: SMALL-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMIH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $35.01. At $37.60 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 49% MoS with quality 8.0. Target $40.17 (+6.8%), stop $32.70 (−15.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMIH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.17 (+10.2% upside). Target $40.17 (+6.8%), stop $32.70 (−15.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $32.70.

What are the risks of investing in NMIH?

Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA (2d, -2.5%).

Is NMIH overvalued or undervalued?

NMI Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NMIH?

13 analysts cover NMIH with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $46.

What does NMI Holdings Inc do?NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through its subsidiary NMIC, an approved insurer in all 50 states and...

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through its subsidiary NMIC, an approved insurer in all 50 states and D.C., underwriting high-LTV residential mortgage loans sold primarily to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As of December 31, 2025, NMIC had $221.4B of primary insurance in force across 2,193 lender customers. No individual customer exceeded 10% of consolidated revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: RDN (Radian Group Inc.) · FAF (First American Corporation (New) · AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) · FNF (Fidelity National Financial, In) · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.)