Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
RDN · Why this verdict
Why Radian Group (RDN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 41%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 49% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 59% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 6.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 85%
- ▸Above max pain $31
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 8.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 294.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.62
Upside
+8.2%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.8; weakest: Insider at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Value at 8.6, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Momentum at 5.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.62 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.