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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $249.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Royal Caribbean Cruises operates three Global Brands—Royal Caribbean (29 ships, ~111,000 berths), Celebrity Cruises (15 ships, ~38,900 berths), and Silversea (12 ships, ~5,500 berths)—plus a 50% JV interest in TUI Cruises/Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, with a combined fleet of 69 ships... Read more

$249.76+24.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.29%
IncomeYield2.02%(5y avg 2.52%)Payout25.93%sustainable
Stop $233.94Target $306.41(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$340.46+36.3%24 analysts
$306.41our TP
$249.76price
$340.46mean
$425

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $249.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.1
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$66.3B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE49.6%
Rev Growth11.3%
Beta1.78
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$360+44.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    On February 10, 2026, the Board appointed Christopher Wiernicki (former Chairman and CEO of American Bureau of Shipping, 2011-2025) as a director. No committee assignments specified.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $241.18Resistance $288.86

Price Targets

$234
$306
A.Upside+22.7%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $249.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $233.94. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the RCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $306.41 (+24.0% upside). Prior stop was $233.94. Stop-loss: $233.94.

What are the risks of investing in RCL?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is RCL overvalued or undervalued?

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RCL?

34 analysts cover RCL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $340.

What does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. do?Royal Caribbean Cruises operates three Global Brands—Royal Caribbean (29 ships, ~111,000 berths), Celebrity Cruises (15...

Royal Caribbean Cruises operates three Global Brands—Royal Caribbean (29 ships, ~111,000 berths), Celebrity Cruises (15 ships, ~38,900 berths), and Silversea (12 ships, ~5,500 berths)—plus a 50% JV interest in TUI Cruises/Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, with a combined fleet of 69 ships and ~179,720 berths. Revenue comes from passenger ticket sales and onboard spending; the company sells primarily to North American, European, and international consumers through travel advisors and direct channels. Royal Caribbean is the world's largest cruise vacation brand by berths.

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