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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $249.32. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $272.86. Engine's entry $249.32 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of shipyards; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Royal Caribbean owns and operates three global cruise brands (Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, Silversea) with 69 ships and approximately 179,720 berths combined, plus 50% interests in TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises. Revenue comes from cruise ticket sales, onboard... Read more

$272.86+16.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#6 of 15 Travel Services
Entry $249.32(Gap Fill 50 Sticky)Stop $224.97Target $307.24(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$341.38+25.1%24 analysts
$307.24our TP
$272.86price
$341.38mean
$250
$425

Wait for pullback to $249.32. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $272.86. Engine's entry $249.32 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of shipyards; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of shipyards
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$68.7B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn23.8%
ROE47.7%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta1.94
Dividend1.67%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$405+48.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierlimited number of shipyards
    10-K Item 1A: 'There are a limited number of shipyards with the capability and capacity to build, repair, maintain and/or upgrade our ships'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Christopher Wiernicki (former Chairman and CEO of American Bureau of Shipping) as director effective Feb 10, 2026. New board seat; no successor needed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $250.38Resistance $304.40

Price Targets

$225
$249
$307
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $249.32. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $272.86. Engine's entry $249.32 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of shipyards; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $307.24 (+12.6%), stop $224.97 (−21.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $307.24 (+16.4% upside). Target $307.24 (+12.6%), stop $224.97 (−21.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $224.97.

What are the risks of investing in RCL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of shipyards; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Is RCL overvalued or undervalued?

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RCL?

34 analysts cover RCL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $341.

What does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. do?Royal Caribbean owns and operates three global cruise brands (Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, Silversea) with 69...

Royal Caribbean owns and operates three global cruise brands (Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, Silversea) with 69 ships and approximately 179,720 berths combined, plus 50% interests in TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises. Revenue comes from cruise ticket sales, onboard spending, and a growing portfolio of private land-based destinations.

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