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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.27: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising,... Read more

$36.27+4.2% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#20 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $33.72Target $37.80(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$38.27+5.5%11 analysts
$37.80our TP
$36.27price
$38.27mean
$32
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.27: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-8.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.9
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE
Rev Growth-6.1%
Beta1.17
Dividend5.25%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$20-44.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
0.5
Value Rank
5.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
2.7
Current Ratio
3.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Roa
5.3
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 245% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.18Resistance $38.57

Price Targets

$34
$38
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PZZA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.27: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.72. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PZZA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.80 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $33.72. Stop-loss: $33.72.

What are the risks of investing in PZZA?

Target reached (-8.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.10% of cap).

Is PZZA overvalued or undervalued?

Papa John's International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.9 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PZZA?

24 analysts cover PZZA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Papa John's International, Inc. do?Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns...

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International. The company operates dine-in and delivery restaurants. It also offers pizza and other food and beverage products. In addition, the company supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to restaurants. Papa John's International, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

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