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OMDAOmada Health, Inc.Sell5.8·$24.37+2.22%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Omada Health is growing revenue rapidly with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, but the stock is technically overbought, has already exceeded its price target, and notable insider selling adds a cautionary signal.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue GrowthStable
  • Overbought Late Cycle RiskImproving
  • Notable Insider SellingStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.37: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%.

Omada Health, Inc., together with its subsidiary, Physera, Inc., provides a range of virtual care programs in the United States. The company offers cardiometabolic programs for prediabetes, diabetes, and hypertension; a physical therapy program to address musculoskeletal... Read more

$24.37-4.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 22 Health Information Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.82%
Stop $22.66Target $28.03(default +15%)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$26.67+9.4%12 analysts
$28.03our TP
$24.37price
$26.67mean
$15
$35

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.37: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202684d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-4.8% upside)
Heavy insider selling (2.0 < 2.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.6
P/E (Fwd)44.9
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA227.9
Profit Mgn1.4%
ROE1.8%
Rev Growth43.1%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV93%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of customers and channel partners
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our sales comes from or through a limited number of customers and channel partners that operate as resellers.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of third-party suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of third-party suppliers for certain devices and other supplies that we deliver to members in connection with our programs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Insiders leaning net-seller recently. Could be diversification/taxes rather than view, but the signal is not supportive.static

Holder Change
0.0
Insider Conviction
2.0
Materiality
3.0
Notable Moves
3.0
Notable insider selling — $5,637,098 (0.390% of mkt cap)Institutions reducing

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.2
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
8.1
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.39%=HEAVYMomentum 7.1>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.24Resistance $25.17

Price Targets

$23
$28
A.Upside-4.8%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.8% upside)
! Heavy insider selling (2.0 < 2.5)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OMDA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.37: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $22.66. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OMDA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.03 (-4.8% upside). Prior stop was $22.66. Stop-loss: $22.66.

What are the risks of investing in OMDA?

Target reached (-4.8% upside); Heavy insider selling (2.0 < 2.5).

Is OMDA overvalued or undervalued?

Omada Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.6 (forward 44.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OMDA?

18 analysts cover OMDA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Omada Health, Inc. do?Omada Health, Inc., together with its subsidiary, Physera, Inc., provides a range of virtual care programs in the...

Omada Health, Inc., together with its subsidiary, Physera, Inc., provides a range of virtual care programs in the United States. The company offers cardiometabolic programs for prediabetes, diabetes, and hypertension; a physical therapy program to address musculoskeletal conditions; other support programs for members taking glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists in its cardiometabolic program; and weight management programs, as well as various behavioral health support programs. It also delivers virtual care. The company offers its programs for employers, health plans and systems, and pharmacy benefits managers through its direct sales force and channel partners. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

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