Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
PRVA · Why this verdict
Why Privia Health Group (PRVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Privia Health grew revenue by 26% year over year and the business achieved a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, reflecting broad improvement across profitability, leverage, and operational efficiency metrics for this healthcare IT platform. Growth breakdown | Annual revenue growth remains above 15% in the next reported fiscal year, demonstrating that the physician enablement platform continues to scale at above-average industry rates. | →Stable |
| CounterHealthcare IT platform revenue growth can be lumpy depending on provider network onboarding timing, and 26% may front-load benefits that slow in the following year. | ||
Free cash flow is 508% of reported net income, indicating that accounting earnings significantly understate actual cash generation, and this gap likely reflects amortization of acquired intangibles that suppress GAAP net income without representing economic cost. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income in the next annual period, confirming the structural cash generation advantage. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF-to-net-income ratios this high often normalize as intangible amortization tails off or as growth capex ramps, making the premium relative to GAAP earnings temporary. | ||
Analysts rate Privia at 8.9 out of 10 and see 36% upside to a consensus target, with the current analyst target implying a price of $28.28 versus the current $23.02, making this one of the higher analyst conviction setups in the healthcare information services group. Sentiment | Analyst price target is maintained or raised and price appreciates toward $28 within 12 months, capturing at least half of the implied analyst upside. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh analyst ratings and upside estimates in healthcare IT have frequently been disappointed by reimbursement pressure, regulatory changes, or slower-than-expected physician adoption. | ||
The quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum 4.0 threshold, and the most recent quarter ended May 2026 showed a -24% earnings miss, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong historical beat record (3 of 4 quarters) can be maintained. Earnings | The next quarterly earnings report delivers a positive surprise above 10%, and quality metrics improve to above 4.0 within 2 reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterA single miss in an otherwise strong beat track record could be noise, especially if the Q1 miss was driven by a one-time cost item rather than structural deterioration. | ||
Privia Health grew revenue by 26% year over year and the business achieved a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, reflecting broad improvement across profitability, leverage, and operational efficiency metrics for this healthcare IT platform.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Annual revenue growth remains above 15% in the next reported fiscal year, demonstrating that the physician enablement platform continues to scale at above-average industry rates.
CounterHealthcare IT platform revenue growth can be lumpy depending on provider network onboarding timing, and 26% may front-load benefits that slow in the following year.
Free cash flow is 508% of reported net income, indicating that accounting earnings significantly understate actual cash generation, and this gap likely reflects amortization of acquired intangibles that suppress GAAP net income without representing economic cost.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income in the next annual period, confirming the structural cash generation advantage.
CounterFCF-to-net-income ratios this high often normalize as intangible amortization tails off or as growth capex ramps, making the premium relative to GAAP earnings temporary.
Analysts rate Privia at 8.9 out of 10 and see 36% upside to a consensus target, with the current analyst target implying a price of $28.28 versus the current $23.02, making this one of the higher analyst conviction setups in the healthcare information services group.
→StableSentiment
- Expectation
- Analyst price target is maintained or raised and price appreciates toward $28 within 12 months, capturing at least half of the implied analyst upside.
CounterHigh analyst ratings and upside estimates in healthcare IT have frequently been disappointed by reimbursement pressure, regulatory changes, or slower-than-expected physician adoption.
The quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum 4.0 threshold, and the most recent quarter ended May 2026 showed a -24% earnings miss, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong historical beat record (3 of 4 quarters) can be maintained.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next quarterly earnings report delivers a positive surprise above 10%, and quality metrics improve to above 4.0 within 2 reporting cycles.
CounterA single miss in an otherwise strong beat track record could be noise, especially if the Q1 miss was driven by a one-time cost item rather than structural deterioration.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Privia Health Group is growing revenue at 26% annually with strong analyst conviction (8.9/10 rating, 36% upside target) and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 508%, but a quality score of 3.5 below the minimum threshold and the recent Q1 2026 earnings miss are key risks to monitor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 508% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 87)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,470,852 (0.101% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+3.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Momentum at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Quality at 3.5, and Technical at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Physician Platform
Trip ifAnnual revenue growth falls below 10% in the next reported fiscal year.
- P2Exceptional Fcf Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion drops below 100% of net income in any reported annual period.
- P3Analyst Conviction 36pct Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $22, reducing implied upside to less than 5% from current levels.
- P4Quality Floor Breach Recent Miss
Trip ifEarnings miss rate rises to 3 or more misses in the next 4 quarters, with average negative surprise below -15%.