Progress Software is an attractively valued infrastructure software company with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, exceptional free cash flow conversion at 291% of net income, and an earnings catalyst in 13 days, but a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at negative 6.1% per 30 days and high leverage at 2.8 times debt-to-equity create real downside risk if the upcoming earnings disappoint.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Catalyst Upcoming Beat Streak→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Death Cross And High Leverage↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $37.21: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Progress Software Corporation develops and sells enterprise software for building, deploying, and managing business applications and digital experiences, including OpenEdge (application development platform) and ShareFile (SaaS document collaboration), sold through direct sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $37.21: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Progress Software Corporation
About Progress Software Corporation
Progress Software's OpenEdge application-development platform and ShareFile SaaS collaboration product together generated slightly more than half of the company's fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue. Progress employed 2,801 people worldwide as of November 30, 2025, including 1,048 in product development, and drew approximately 36% of fiscal 2025 revenue from sales outside North America. No single customer or partner accounted for more than 10% of total revenue in any of the last three fiscal years.
Progress sells roughly a dozen product lines, including OpenEdge, ShareFile, MOVEit managed file transfer, Chef DevOps automation, MarkLogic data platform, Sitefinity digital-experience software, and Kemp LoadMaster load balancers, built through an acquisition-driven growth strategy that has added Ipswitch, Chef, Kemp, MarkLogic, ShareFile, and Nuclia since 2019. Products are licensed under perpetual, term, or subscription models and sold both directly and through independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, value-added resellers, and distributors; nearly half of worldwide revenue flows through these indirect channels. The company operates as a single reportable segment, with its CEO as chief operating decision maker reviewing results on a consolidated basis. Progress competes against vendors offering proprietary and open-source alternatives across application development, data integration, and infrastructure-monitoring categories, and states it does not believe any single vendor dominates these markets.
Show full overview
Progress' most material overhang traces to the May 2023 MOVEit Transfer zero-day vulnerability, which triggered three formal government investigations alongside informal inquiries from data-privacy regulators, the FTC, the SEC, and several state attorneys general, most since closed without enforcement action, plus consolidated class-action and insurance-subrogation litigation in a Massachusetts multidistrict proceeding. The company states it cannot yet estimate the quantitative liability from that litigation with reasonable certainty. A separate cybersecurity incident disclosed in December 2022 involved unauthorized access to Progress' corporate network and exfiltration of company data, underscoring recurring third-party and nation-state cyber-intrusion risk to a vendor whose MOVEit and ShareFile products routinely transmit customer data.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Progress Software Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-08Recent Developments — Progress Software Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Progress Software (NASDAQ:PRGS) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.14 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Progress Software: Fiscal Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Progress Software: Fiscal Q3 Earnings Snapshot - kare11.com — kare11.com positive
- NEWS (PRGS) Progress Software Now Expects Fiscal 2026 Revenue Range $1.04 Billion - $1.05 Billion, vs. FactSet Est of $1.01 B — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS (PRGS) Progress Software Now Expects Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS Range $6.15 - $6.23, vs. FactSet Est of $6.18 - marketscre — marketscreener.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-08T11:37:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $37.21: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.82. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.89 (+31.4% upside). Prior stop was $34.82. Stop-loss: $34.82.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.4), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap).
Progress Software Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 5.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover PRGS with a consensus score of 4.5/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Progress Software Corporation do?Progress Software Corporation develops and sells enterprise software for building, deploying, and managing business...
Progress Software Corporation develops and sells enterprise software for building, deploying, and managing business applications and digital experiences, including OpenEdge (application development platform) and ShareFile (SaaS document collaboration), sold through direct sales plus indirect ISV, OEM, and reseller channels across North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. OpenEdge and ShareFile together accounted for slightly more than half of fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue, and no single customer or partner exceeded 10% of total revenue in any of the last three fiscal years.