Progress Software is an attractively valued infrastructure software company with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, exceptional free cash flow conversion at 291% of net income, and an earnings catalyst in 13 days, but a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at negative 6.1% per 30 days and high leverage at 2.8 times debt-to-equity create real downside risk if the upcoming earnings disappoint.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Catalyst Upcoming Beat Streak→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Death Cross And High Leverage↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. At $41.00, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.7%.
Progress Software Corporation develops and sells enterprise software for building, deploying, and managing business applications and digital experiences, including OpenEdge (application development platform) and ShareFile (SaaS document collaboration), sold through direct sales... Read more
Sell if holding. At $41.00, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.7%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Progress Software Corporation
About Progress Software Corporation
Progress Software's OpenEdge application-development platform and ShareFile SaaS collaboration product together generated slightly more than half of the company's fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue. Progress employed 2,801 people worldwide as of November 30, 2025, including 1,048 in product development, and drew approximately 36% of fiscal 2025 revenue from sales outside North America. No single customer or partner accounted for more than 10% of total revenue in any of the last three fiscal years.
Progress sells roughly a dozen product lines, including OpenEdge, ShareFile, MOVEit managed file transfer, Chef DevOps automation, MarkLogic data platform, Sitefinity digital-experience software, and Kemp LoadMaster load balancers, built through an acquisition-driven growth strategy that has added Ipswitch, Chef, Kemp, MarkLogic, ShareFile, and Nuclia since 2019. Products are licensed under perpetual, term, or subscription models and sold both directly and through independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, value-added resellers, and distributors; nearly half of worldwide revenue flows through these indirect channels. The company operates as a single reportable segment, with its CEO as chief operating decision maker reviewing results on a consolidated basis. Progress competes against vendors offering proprietary and open-source alternatives across application development, data integration, and infrastructure-monitoring categories, and states it does not believe any single vendor dominates these markets.
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Progress' most material overhang traces to the May 2023 MOVEit Transfer zero-day vulnerability, which triggered three formal government investigations alongside informal inquiries from data-privacy regulators, the FTC, the SEC, and several state attorneys general, most since closed without enforcement action, plus consolidated class-action and insurance-subrogation litigation in a Massachusetts multidistrict proceeding. The company states it cannot yet estimate the quantitative liability from that litigation with reasonable certainty. A separate cybersecurity incident disclosed in December 2022 involved unauthorized access to Progress' corporate network and exfiltration of company data, underscoring recurring third-party and nation-state cyber-intrusion risk to a vendor whose MOVEit and ShareFile products routinely transmit customer data.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Progress Software Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-19Recent Developments — Progress Software Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Do Progress Software’s (PRGS) Repeated Earnings Beats Reveal a Deeper Profitability Advantage? - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Top Wall Street Forecasters Revamp Progress Software Expectations Ahead Of Q2 Earnings - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS Progress Software Corp (PRGS) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Progress Software Corp (PRGS) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Progress Software Corp (PRGS) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-07-20T00:42:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $41.00, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.7%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Prior stop was $37.71. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $44.08 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $37.71. Stop-loss: $37.71.
Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.6), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.03% of cap).
Progress Software Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover PRGS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $51.
What does Progress Software Corporation do?Progress Software Corporation develops and sells enterprise software for building, deploying, and managing business...
Progress Software Corporation develops and sells enterprise software for building, deploying, and managing business applications and digital experiences, including OpenEdge (application development platform) and ShareFile (SaaS document collaboration), sold through direct sales plus indirect ISV, OEM, and reseller channels across North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. OpenEdge and ShareFile together accounted for slightly more than half of fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue, and no single customer or partner exceeded 10% of total revenue in any of the last three fiscal years.