Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the PRGS stock price target?

Take-profit $44.22 (+66.3% upside). Prior stop was $24.73.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.59: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

$26.59+66.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#25 of 80 Software - Infrastructure

Stop $24.73Target $44.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.3:1

Analyst target$50.83+91.2%6 analysts

$44.22our TP

$26.59price

$50.83mean

$83

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.59: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 66%

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0

P/E (Fwd)4.5

Mkt Cap$1.1B

EV/EBITDA7.3

Profit Mgn8.6%

ROE18.3%

Rev Growth4.1%

Beta0.76

DividendNone

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish

IV78%elevated

Max Pain$18-34.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.615%1.29

Quality6.215%0.93

Growth6.815%1.02

Momentum4.510%0.45

Sentiment6.610%0.66

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank3.910%0.39

Technical Setup5.05%0.25

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst6.95%0.35

Overall (Σ contributions)5.93

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

1.3

Quality Rank

5.7

Value Rank

8.5

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 6.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

50 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.16Resistance $32.23

Price Targets

$25

$44

A.Upside+66.3%

A.R:R6.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-29 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is PRGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.59: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $24.73. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PRGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.22 (+66.3% upside). Prior stop was $24.73. Stop-loss: $24.73.

What are the risks of investing in PRGS?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.10% of cap).

Is PRGS overvalued or undervalued?

Progress Software Corporation trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PRGS?

13 analysts cover PRGS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Progress Software Corporation do?Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence...

Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence (AI) powered applications and digital experiences in the United States and internationally. The company offers Agentic RAG, a next-generation Agentic Rag-as-a-Service platform; Automate MFT, a cloud-native Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform for automated and secure file transfers; Chef, a DevOps/DevSecOps automation software; Corticon, a decision automation platform; DataDirect, a secure data connectivity tools for Relational, NoSQL, Big Data, and SaaS data sources; Developer Tools, such as software development tooling collection, including NET and JavaScript UI components for web, desktop and mobile applications, AI-prompt components, reporting and report management tools, and automated testing and mocking tools; Flowmon, a AI-powered network security and visibility product with automated response across hybrid cloud ecosystems; and Kemp LoadMaster, an application delivery and security product for cloud-native, and virtual and hardware load balancers. It also provides MarkLogic, a data agility platform to connect data and metadata; MOVEit, a managed file transfer software; OpenEdge, an application development platform; Semaphore, a Semantic AI platform; ShareFile, an SaaS-native AI-powered document centric collaboration platform; Sitefinity, a digital experience platform foundation; and WhatsUp Gold, a network infrastructure monitoring software to find and fix network problems. The company offers project management, implementation, custom software development, programming, and other services, as well as web-enable applications, and training services. It sells its products to end users, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, system integrators, value added resellers, and distributors. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.