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PRGSProgress Software CorporationSell5.8·$31.42+0.83%
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Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.42 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence (AI) powered applications and digital experiences in the United States and internationally. The company offers Agentic RAG, a next-generation Agentic... Read more

$31.42+40.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#30 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield18.89%
Stop $29.22Target $44.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$50.83+61.8%6 analysts
$44.22our TP
$31.42price
$50.83mean
$83

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.42 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jun 29, 202620d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 41%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.06bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$65+106.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.7
Support Resistance
4.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
5.6
Value Rank
8.3
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.95Resistance $35.38

Price Targets

$29
$44
A.Upside+40.7%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-29 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.42 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $29.22. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PRGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.22 (+40.7% upside). Prior stop was $29.22. Stop-loss: $29.22.

What are the risks of investing in PRGS?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is PRGS overvalued or undervalued?

Progress Software Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PRGS?

13 analysts cover PRGS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Progress Software Corporation do?Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence...

Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence (AI) powered applications and digital experiences in the United States and internationally. The company offers Agentic RAG, a next-generation Agentic Rag-as-a-Service platform; Automate MFT, a cloud-native Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform for automated and secure file transfers; Chef, a DevOps/DevSecOps automation software; Corticon, a decision automation platform; DataDirect, a secure data connectivity tools for Relational, NoSQL, Big Data, and SaaS data sources; Developer Tools, such as software development tooling collection, including NET and JavaScript UI components for web, desktop and mobile applications, AI-prompt components, reporting and report management tools, and automated testing and mocking tools; Flowmon, a AI-powered network security and visibility product with automated response across hybrid cloud ecosystems; and Kemp LoadMaster, an application delivery and security product for cloud-native, and virtual and hardware load balancers. It also provides MarkLogic, a data agility platform to connect data and metadata; MOVEit, a managed file transfer software; OpenEdge, an application development platform; Semaphore, a Semantic AI platform; ShareFile, an SaaS-native AI-powered document centric collaboration platform; Sitefinity, a digital experience platform foundation; and WhatsUp Gold, a network infrastructure monitoring software to find and fix network problems. The company offers project management, implementation, custom software development, programming, and other services, as well as web-enable applications, and training services. It sells its products to end users, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, system integrators, value added resellers, and distributors. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

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