Skip to main content
CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.Sell7.0·$17.65+4.13%
Open full analysis

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility... Read more

$17.65-0.3% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#10 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.05%
IncomeYield1.19%(5y avg 2.92%)Payout6.52%sustainable
Stop $16.41Target $17.59(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$17.75+0.6%2 analysts
$17.59our TP
$17.65price
$17.75mean
$15
$21

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.0/10
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA3.6
Profit Mgn40.3%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth61.8%
Beta1.54
Dividend1.19%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$25+41.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.6
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.8
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.69Resistance $17.95

Price Targets

$16
$18
A.Upside-0.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGAU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.41. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGAU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.59 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $16.41. Stop-loss: $16.41.

What are the risks of investing in CGAU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?

Centerra Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGAU?

18 analysts cover CGAU with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Centerra Gold Inc. do?Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in...

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties. Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · SSRM (SSR Mining Inc.)
Home Stocks CGAU

Latest news

Latest News

Marketscreener.com48d agoEarnings
GlobeNewswire49d ago
GuruFocus55d ago
GuruFocus56d agoAnalyst
MSN56d ago
Newser.com34d ago
TMX Newsfile70d ago
GuruFocus49d ago
Seeking Alpha48d ago
Moomoo62d agoAnalyst
The Globe and Mail38d ago
MarketBeat67d agoAnalyst
GuruFocus39d ago
Seeking Alpha58d ago
Xã Thanh Hà58d ago
Insider Monkey54d agoAnalyst
TradingView54d agoEarnings
MSN61d agoProduct
MSN68d ago
Bitget68d ago
Loading more...