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Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility... Read more

$16.31+15.8% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#8 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.05%
IncomeYield1.19%(5y avg 2.94%)Payout6.52%sustainable
Stop $15.59Target $18.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$17.75+8.8%2 analysts
$18.89our TP
$16.31price
$17.75mean
$15
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Centerra Gold Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA3.7
Profit Mgn40.3%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth61.8%
Beta1.48
Dividend1.19%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.1
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.07Resistance $19.28

Price Targets

$16
$19
A.Upside+15.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGAU stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $18.89 (+15.8%), stop $15.59 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGAU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.89 (+15.8% upside). Target $18.89 (+15.8%), stop $15.59 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $15.59.

What are the risks of investing in CGAU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?

Centerra Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CGAU?

18 analysts cover CGAU with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Centerra Gold Inc. do?Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in...

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties. Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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