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Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $16.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $17.57. Engine's entry $16.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility... Read more

$17.57+18.3% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#3 of 32 Gold
Entry $16.78(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $15.10Target $19.84(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$17.75+1.0%2 analysts
$19.84our TP
$17.57price
$17.75mean
$15
$21

Wait for pullback to $16.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $17.57. Engine's entry $16.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-14.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.2
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA4.2
Profit Mgn42.2%
ROE31.4%
Rev Growth32.8%
Beta1.52
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV72%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.28Resistance $20.24

Price Targets

$15
$17
$20
A.Upside+12.9%
A.R:R-1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGAU stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $16.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $17.57. Engine's entry $16.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-14.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $19.84 (+12.9%), stop $15.10 (−16.4%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGAU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.84 (+18.3% upside). Target $19.84 (+12.9%), stop $15.10 (−16.4%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $15.10.

What are the risks of investing in CGAU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?

Centerra Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CGAU?

18 analysts cover CGAU with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Centerra Gold Inc. do?Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in...

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties. Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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