Value
9.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
ORLA · Why this verdict
Why Orla Mining (ORLA) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 169% year-over-year, driven by ramp-up of mining operations, and free cash flow is 217% of net income, reflecting exceptional capital efficiency in the gold production phase. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 30% for at least 2 consecutive quarters as production scales further. | →Stable |
| CounterThe materials cycle peak warning flags that a forward price-to-earnings of 6.9x and forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.44x suggest analysts may be building earnings forecasts on elevated gold prices that could mean-revert. | ||
The materials cycle peak gate has been triggered because the forward price-to-earnings of 6.9x and forward-to-trailing earnings ratio of 0.44x suggest EPS has expanded sharply off a commodity price surge and forward estimates may be stale. Warnings | Gold price remains above the level at which Orla's forward earnings estimates were set, confirming that the cycle warning does not materialize. | →Stable |
| CounterEven if gold prices pull back 15-20% from current levels, Orla's low cost structure and high-grade deposits may still support profitability well above pre-2024 levels. | ||
Orla Mining achieves a Rule of 40 score of 212, combining revenue growth of 169% with strong profitability, placing it in an elite tier of quality compounders with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and 42% return on equity. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 25% and the Rule of 40 stays above 80 for the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGold producer quality metrics are heavily influenced by the gold price cycle; a sustained decline in gold prices below the all-in sustaining cost would rapidly erode all these metrics. | ||
An options put-to-call ratio of 22.86 is one of the most extreme readings possible, indicating that options market participants are overwhelmingly positioned for downside protection, which is a significant bearish institutional signal. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 5.0 within 6 months as the stock demonstrates fundamental strength or the options overhang resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterVery high put-to-call ratios in small-cap miners can reflect hedging by large shareholders rather than directional bearish bets, making the signal less predictive for individual investors. | ||
Revenue grew 169% year-over-year, driven by ramp-up of mining operations, and free cash flow is 217% of net income, reflecting exceptional capital efficiency in the gold production phase.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 30% for at least 2 consecutive quarters as production scales further.
CounterThe materials cycle peak warning flags that a forward price-to-earnings of 6.9x and forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.44x suggest analysts may be building earnings forecasts on elevated gold prices that could mean-revert.
The materials cycle peak gate has been triggered because the forward price-to-earnings of 6.9x and forward-to-trailing earnings ratio of 0.44x suggest EPS has expanded sharply off a commodity price surge and forward estimates may be stale.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Gold price remains above the level at which Orla's forward earnings estimates were set, confirming that the cycle warning does not materialize.
CounterEven if gold prices pull back 15-20% from current levels, Orla's low cost structure and high-grade deposits may still support profitability well above pre-2024 levels.
Orla Mining achieves a Rule of 40 score of 212, combining revenue growth of 169% with strong profitability, placing it in an elite tier of quality compounders with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and 42% return on equity.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 25% and the Rule of 40 stays above 80 for the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterGold producer quality metrics are heavily influenced by the gold price cycle; a sustained decline in gold prices below the all-in sustaining cost would rapidly erode all these metrics.
An options put-to-call ratio of 22.86 is one of the most extreme readings possible, indicating that options market participants are overwhelmingly positioned for downside protection, which is a significant bearish institutional signal.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 5.0 within 6 months as the stock demonstrates fundamental strength or the options overhang resolves.
CounterVery high put-to-call ratios in small-cap miners can reflect hedging by large shareholders rather than directional bearish bets, making the signal less predictive for individual investors.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Orla Mining is a high-conviction gold producer with an elite Rule of 40 score of 212, 169% revenue growth, and 217% free cash flow conversion, but an extreme put-to-call ratio of 22.86 and a materials cycle peak warning signal elevated near-term risk that may require waiting for a better entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 217% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 169% YoY
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 83%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 59.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.42× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_B_EXCEPTIONAL->V9:MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=6.0x,ratio=0.42x
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.78
Upside
+55.3%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK gate's fwd=6.0x,ratio=0.42x outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.78.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.4, and Quality at 9.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.78 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Rule Of 40 Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Revenue Growth 169pct
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters as gold production or price declines.
- P3Extreme Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 10 for more than 60 days without a fundamental catalyst.
- P4Materials Cycle Peak Warning
Trip ifGold spot price falls below $2,200 per ounce for more than 30 consecutive days, threatening the earnings base.