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Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.47: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Okta is an independent cloud-based identity platform offering workforce and customer identity security through its Okta Platform and Auth0 Platform to over 20,000 customers globally as of January 31, 2026. Revenue comes primarily from multi-year SaaS subscription contracts sold... Read more

$74.47+23.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#44 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $69.28Target $92.25(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$100.28+34.7%43 analysts
$92.25our TP
$74.47price
$100.28mean
$140

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.47: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.4): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.4), Material insider selling (14 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.1
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$13.5B
EV/EBITDA45.7
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE3.5%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta0.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts53

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$40-46.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicinternational revenue20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our international revenue was 21% and 20% of our total revenue in fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Chief Legal Officer Larissa Schwartz will leave her CLO role effective July 31, 2026, then serve as senior advisor through January 31, 2027. No successor named for the CLO role.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOW
    Director Jeff Epstein resigned from the Board effective at the 2026 annual meeting (planned June 18, 2026). Departure not due to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
    Director Michael Stankey resigned from the Board on March 5, 2026. Departure not due to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.2
Quality Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
4.2
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $62.66Resistance $82.05

Price Targets

$69
$92
A.Upside+23.9%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts53
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$100

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-26 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OKTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.47: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Prior stop was $69.28. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OKTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $92.25 (+23.8% upside). Prior stop was $69.28. Stop-loss: $69.28.

What are the risks of investing in OKTA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.4), Material insider selling (14 sells, 0.04% of cap).

Is OKTA overvalued or undervalued?

Okta, Inc. trades at a P/E of 58.1 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OKTA?

53 analysts cover OKTA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $100.

What does Okta, Inc. do?Okta is an independent cloud-based identity platform offering workforce and customer identity security through its Okta...

Okta is an independent cloud-based identity platform offering workforce and customer identity security through its Okta Platform and Auth0 Platform to over 20,000 customers globally as of January 31, 2026. Revenue comes primarily from multi-year SaaS subscription contracts sold directly and through channel partners; international revenue was 20% of total in fiscal 2026.

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