Vistra Corp is an independent power producer with 43% revenue growth, a forward P/E of 14.0x, and 32% analyst upside to $202.76 — but the stock has crossed into a death cross pattern below all moving averages, missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and carries a debt-to-equity ratio that imposes a -1.5 leverage penalty, making this a high-upside bet on a technically broken chart.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Ai Power Demand→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Death Cross Falling Knife Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $146.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity and approximately 5 million retail customers. Revenue comes from retail electricity sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $146.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Vistra Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Vistra Corp (VST) Stock Down 3.9% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 86/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Vistra (VST) Stock Looks Reasonable Following New York Data Center Limits - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Vistra (VST) Stock Looks Reasonable Following New York Data Center Limits - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Vistra Declares Dividend on Common Stock and Series A Preferred Stock - Yahoo! Finance Canada — Yahoo! Finance Canada positive
- NEWS Vistra Declares Dividend on Common Stock and Series A Preferred Stock - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-28T12:09:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditynatural gas62%10-K Item 1: 'Natural Gas| | CCGT, CT or ST| | 26,989 | | | 62%'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas10-K Item 1: 'The largest portion of our retail operations are in Texas, where we provide retail electricity to approximately 2.6 million customers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $146.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $136.39. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $187.40 (+27.8% upside). Prior stop was $136.39. Stop-loss: $136.39.
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5.
Vistra Corp. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover VST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $208.
What does Vistra Corp. do?Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District...
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity and approximately 5 million retail customers. Revenue comes from retail electricity sales through brands including TXU Energy, Ambit Energy, and Energy Harbor, combined with merchant wholesale generation dispatched across ERCOT, PJM, ISO-NE, MISO, NYISO, and CAISO markets.