Vistra Corp is an independent power producer with 43% revenue growth, a forward P/E of 14.0x, and 32% analyst upside to $202.76 — but the stock has crossed into a death cross pattern below all moving averages, missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and carries a debt-to-equity ratio that imposes a -1.5 leverage penalty, making this a high-upside bet on a technically broken chart.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Ai Power Demand→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Death Cross Falling Knife Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $154.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%).
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity and approximately 5 million retail customers. Revenue comes from retail electricity sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $154.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-19Recent Developments — Vistra Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Meta, Vistra, T. Rowe Price and a Health Care Stock on CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Warned of an AI Power Crunch—New York Just Halted Large Data Centers: CEG, VST, NEE in Focus — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Vistra, Meta Platforms, Eli Lilly, T.Rowe Price Group — benzinga Jul 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Scotiabank Maintains Sector Outperform on Vistra, Raises Price Target to $298 — benzinga Jul 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump Bet On The Same 10 Stocks – Some Might Surprise You — benzinga Jul 9, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-20T00:47:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditynatural gas62%10-K Item 1: 'Natural Gas| | CCGT, CT or ST| | 26,989 | | | 62%'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas10-K Item 1: 'The largest portion of our retail operations are in Texas, where we provide retail electricity to approximately 2.6 million customers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $154.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $144.56. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $200.85 (+29.2% upside). Prior stop was $144.56. Stop-loss: $144.56.
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (4).
Vistra Corp. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover VST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $223.
What does Vistra Corp. do?Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District...
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity and approximately 5 million retail customers. Revenue comes from retail electricity sales through brands including TXU Energy, Ambit Energy, and Energy Harbor, combined with merchant wholesale generation dispatched across ERCOT, PJM, ISO-NE, MISO, NYISO, and CAISO markets.