Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $135.06 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Vistra Corp is one of the largest competitive power generators in the U.S., with ~44,000 MW of generation capacity (natural gas 62%, coal 20%, nuclear 15%, renewables 3%) and retail electricity operations serving ~5 million customers across 18 states. Its integrated... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $135.06 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Vistra Corp.
Latest news
- Third Point Sells Position In Alibaba Group; Bausch Health Companies; Brookfield Corporation; Casey's General Stores; Ch — benzinga May 15, 2026 neutral
- Appaloosa Management Increases Stake In Amazon.com To 4,320,000 Shares; Baidu Increases Stake To 692,100 Shares; NRG Ene — benzinga May 15, 2026
- Why Silver, Power And Chemicals Will Be The Next Micron Trade, Top AI Expert Says — benzinga May 11, 2026 neutral
- Here's How Much $100 Invested In Vistra 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today — benzinga May 11, 2026 positive
- Vistra Expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Of $6.72B-$7.52B — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas generation62%10-K Item 1: 'Natural Gas| | CCGT, CT or ST| | 26,989 | | | 62%'
- LOWCommoditycoal generation20%10-K Item 1: 'Coal| | ST| | 8,743 | | | 20%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $135.06 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $128.68. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $202.55 (+50.4% upside). Prior stop was $128.68. Stop-loss: $128.68.
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).
Vistra Corp. trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover VST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $225.
What does Vistra Corp. do?Vistra Corp is one of the largest competitive power generators in the U.S., with ~44,000 MW of generation capacity...
Vistra Corp is one of the largest competitive power generators in the U.S., with ~44,000 MW of generation capacity (natural gas 62%, coal 20%, nuclear 15%, renewables 3%) and retail electricity operations serving ~5 million customers across 18 states. Its integrated retail-and-generation model, primarily anchored in ERCOT (Texas) with ~2.6 million retail customers, provides countercyclical revenue stability.