Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $158.18: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.31; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company serving approximately 5 million customers across 18 states, with 44,000 MW of capacity. Revenue comes from retail electricity and gas sales, wholesale power markets, and ancillary services. Largest retail... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $158.18: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.31; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliernatural gas, coal, fuel oil, and nuclear fuel10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on natural gas, coal, fuel oil, and nuclear fuel for the majority of our power generation facilities.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $158.18: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.31; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $147.00. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $207.85 (+31.5% upside). Prior stop was $147.00. Stop-loss: $147.00.
Concentration risk — Supplier: natural gas, coal, fuel oil, and nuclear fuel; Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Negative free cash flow.
Vistra Corp. trades at a P/E of 70.5 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover VST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $231.
What does Vistra Corp. do?Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company serving approximately 5 million customers...
Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company serving approximately 5 million customers across 18 states, with 44,000 MW of capacity. Revenue comes from retail electricity and gas sales, wholesale power markets, and ancillary services. Largest retail operations are in Texas with 2.6 million customers.