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Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $368.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Talen Energy owns approximately 13.1 GW of U.S. power generation including the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear facility, combined-cycle natural gas plants, and peaking assets primarily in the PJM (mid-Atlantic) market. Revenue comes from wholesale electricity, capacity, and ancillary... Read more

$368.81+14.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#2 of 7 Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Stop $343.30Target $421.83(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$468.70+27.1%15 analysts
$421.83our TP
$368.81price
$468.70mean
$594

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $368.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Susquehanna
Concentration risk — Geographic: mid-Atlantic area
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$16.1B
EV/EBITDA69.2
Profit Mgn-8.3%
ROE-17.7%
Rev Growth58.0%
Beta1.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV72%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductSusquehanna
    10-K Item 1A: 'Because Susquehanna accounts for a substantial amount of our generation and associated earnings, any adverse development in Susquehanna's operations... could have a significant impact on our business'
  • HIGHGeographicmid-Atlantic area
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our power generation facilities are geographically concentrated in the mid-Atlantic area of the United States, we face increased risk that a natural or man-made disaster in that area could adversely affect a large part of our operations'
  • HIGHCustomerAWS PPA
    10-K Item 1A: 'under the AWS PPA, we have committed to certain delivery quantities over time with agreed reliability standards and AWS may be entitled to contractual or other remedies in the event of our non-performance'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -8.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
3.6
Current Ratio
4.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
8.3
Industry growth leader

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
1.5
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 5 days
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $310.98Resistance $371.75

Price Targets

$343
$422
A.Upside+14.4%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $368.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $343.30. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $421.83 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $343.30. Stop-loss: $343.30.

What are the risks of investing in TLN?

Concentration risk — Product: Susquehanna; Concentration risk — Geographic: mid-Atlantic area; Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is TLN overvalued or undervalued?

Talen Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TLN?

23 analysts cover TLN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $469.

What does Talen Energy Corporation do?Talen Energy owns approximately 13.1 GW of U.S. power generation including the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear facility,...

Talen Energy owns approximately 13.1 GW of U.S. power generation including the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear facility, combined-cycle natural gas plants, and peaking assets primarily in the PJM (mid-Atlantic) market. Revenue comes from wholesale electricity, capacity, and ancillary services; a major 1,920 MW power purchase agreement with AWS for Susquehanna output runs through 2042.

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