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Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $312.02: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Talen Energy is an independent power producer with ~13.1 GW of U.S. generation including 90% of the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear plant, predominantly in PJM markets. Revenue sources include PJM capacity/energy auctions, a long-term PPA providing up to 1,920 MW to AWS through 2042,... Read more

$312.02+36.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 7 Utilities - Independent Power Producers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.36%
Stop $300.08Target $427.77(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$475.30+52.3%15 analysts
$427.77our TP
$312.02price
$475.30mean
$595

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $312.02: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Talen Energy Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: PJM market
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$14.8B
EV/EBITDA31.4
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-1.9%
Rev Growth96.7%
Beta1.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPJM market
    10-K Item 1: 'The substantial majority of our generation capacity is located in, and accordingly the majority of our revenues are derived from, PJM'
  • MEDIUMCustomerAWS
    10-K Item 1: 'we and AWS entered into an expanded power purchase agreement for the long-term, fixed-price supply of up to 1,920 MW of power annually from Susquehanna'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.3
Gross Margin
4.0
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
6.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 43%, FCF yield 9.4%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $309.36Resistance $416.68

Price Targets

$300
$428
A.Upside+37.1%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $312.02: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $300.08. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $427.77 (+36.0% upside). Prior stop was $300.08. Stop-loss: $300.08.

What are the risks of investing in TLN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: PJM market; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is TLN overvalued or undervalued?

Talen Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TLN?

23 analysts cover TLN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $475.

What does Talen Energy Corporation do?Talen Energy is an independent power producer with ~13.1 GW of U.S. generation including 90% of the 2.5 GW Susquehanna...

Talen Energy is an independent power producer with ~13.1 GW of U.S. generation including 90% of the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear plant, predominantly in PJM markets. Revenue sources include PJM capacity/energy auctions, a long-term PPA providing up to 1,920 MW to AWS through 2042, and RMR arrangements paying ~$180M/year fixed for Brandon Shores and H.A. Wagner.

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