ONEOK is a midstream energy company with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and 6.5% revenue growth, but free cash flow conversion of only 13% of net income is a red flag for earnings quality, and momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold with volume distribution signaling declining buying interest.
Thesis pillars
- Leverage And Dividend Safety↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Streak Growth↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Quality Red Flag↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).
ONEOK provides midstream services through a roughly 60,000-mile pipeline network in the U.S., operating four segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Refined Products and Crude. Approximately 90% of 2025 consolidated... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 109d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About ONEOK, Inc.
About ONEOK, Inc.
ONEOK's four midstream segments—Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Refined Products and Crude—connect through a roughly 60,000-mile pipeline network spanning the Williston, Permian, Mid-Continent, and Gulf Coast regions. Following the EnLink acquisition that closed January 31, 2025, for $4.0 billion in ONEOK shares, the company generated approximately 90% fee-based consolidated earnings in 2025, with 7.2 Bcf/d of natural gas processing capacity and NGL fractionation capacity of 1.2 MMBbl/d at 94% utilization.
ONEOK earns revenue across gathering, processing, and fractionation (primarily fee-based), regulated pipeline transportation tariffs, and optimization activities that capture location and seasonal price differentials. The Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment—serving producers in the Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent, and Permian Basin under fee-with-POP and fee-only contracts—sells NGLs primarily to the Natural Gas Liquids segment. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment derives the majority of capacity from long-term, firm fee-based subscriptions, limiting volumetric exposure compared with other segments. Three major capital projects underpin near-term capacity additions: the Bighorn natural gas processing plant in the Permian Basin ($365 million, 300 MMcf/d, targeted mid-2027), the Texas City liquified petroleum gas export terminal ($1.0 billion, 400 MBbl/d, expected early 2028) in joint venture with MPLX LP, and the Eiger Express Pipeline ($350 million, 3.7 Bcf/d capacity, expected mid-2028) with WhiteWater, MPLX LP, and Enbridge.
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The Natural Gas Pipelines segment notes that the majority of capacity is subscribed under long-term, firm fee-based contracts, which insulates it from volume declines affecting the company's other segments. On the capital side, the Refined Products pipeline expansion from Scott City, Kansas, to Denver International Airport—a 230-mile, 16-inch diameter pipeline adding 35 MBbl/d of system capacity—is fully subscribed under long-term contracts and targets completion in mid-2026. Conversely, the 10-K warns that new pipeline construction exposes the company to right-of-way, permitting, and inflationary risk; potential tariffs on non-U.S.-produced construction materials could further increase project costs for these capital commitments.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
From ONEOK, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — ONEOK, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ONEOK (NYSE:OKE) Share Price, Forecast & Analysis - Stocks Down Under — Stocks Down Under Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ONEOK (OKE) Raises 2026 Guidance Following Strong Q3 Results - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oneok Inc. (OKE) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS (OKE) ONEOK Now Expects 2026 EPS Midpoint of $6.30, vs. FactSet Est of $5.76 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (OKE) ONEOK Posts Q3 Revenue $12.5B, vs. FactSet Est of $10.54B - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOWDirectors Pattye L. Moore and Gerald B. Smith will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting (May 20, 2026). Moore is retiring at term end; Smith is retiring under the mandatory age retirement policy. No disagreement with ONEOK cited for either departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $91.98 (+3.8%), stop $84.92 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $91.98 (+3.8% upside). Analyst target $91.98 (+3.8%), stop $84.92 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $84.92.
Thin upside margin: 3.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Negative momentum.
ONEOK, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
27 analysts rate OKE, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 20 analysts publish price targets averaging $102.
What does ONEOK, Inc. do?ONEOK provides midstream services through a roughly 60,000-mile pipeline network in the U.S., operating four segments:...
ONEOK provides midstream services through a roughly 60,000-mile pipeline network in the U.S., operating four segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Refined Products and Crude. Approximately 90% of 2025 consolidated earnings were fee-based, serving major and independent crude oil and natural gas producers across the Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, and Gulf Coast regions.