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NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. At $72.04, A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Montana; Concentration risk — Regulatory: MPSC.

NorthWestern Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. Rates are set through regulatory proceedings before state commissions and FERC. A pending all-stock... Read more

$72.04+2.3% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#34 of 38 Utilities - Regulated Electric
Stop $67.99Target $73.68(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$69.10-4.1%5 analysts
$73.68our TP
$72.04price
$69.10mean
$54
$79

Sell if holding. At $72.04, A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Montana; Concentration risk — Regulatory: MPSC. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Montana
Concentration risk — Regulatory: MPSC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.3
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA13.4
Profit Mgn11.2%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth10.9%
Beta0.34
Dividend3.71%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMontana
    10-K Item 1A: 'during peak-load periods our electric and natural gas systems in Montana are constrained'
  • HIGHregulatoryMPSC
    10-K Item 1A: 'the MPSC disallowed $30.9 million of capital costs that they deemed were not prudently incurred related to the construction of YCGS'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    NorthWestern Energy established its 2026 Annual Incentive Plan for officers and eligible employees covering January 1–December 31, 2026. Compensatory arrangement only; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
5.5
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.96Resistance $75.18

Price Targets

$68
$74
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $72.04, A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Montana; Concentration risk — Regulatory: MPSC. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $67.99. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the NWE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.68 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $67.99. Stop-loss: $67.99.

What are the risks of investing in NWE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Montana; Concentration risk — Regulatory: MPSC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NWE overvalued or undervalued?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWE?

10 analysts cover NWE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $69.

What does NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. do?NorthWestern Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving approximately 850,300 customers in Montana,...

NorthWestern Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. Rates are set through regulatory proceedings before state commissions and FERC. A pending all-stock merger with Black Hills Corporation to form Bright Horizon Energy was announced August 2025.

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