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NiSource Inc (NI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ADS data center customer concentration.

NiSource is a regulated energy holding company serving approximately 3.8 million gas and electric customers across six states through two segments: Columbia Operations (gas) and NIPSCO Operations (gas and electric). Revenue derives substantially from rate-regulated utility... Read more

$48.87-1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
Stop $46.92Target $47.77(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$50.79+3.9%14 analysts
$47.77our TP
$48.87price
$50.79mean
$43
$55

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ADS data center customer concentration. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ADS data center customer concentration
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)21.6
Mkt Cap$23.1B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth19.8%
Beta0.61
Dividend2.49%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerADS data center customer concentration
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our partnership with ADS exposes us to significant customer concentration risk.'
  • MEDIUMSuppliergas materials suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We lack diversity in suppliers of some gas materials.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
10.0
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $46.20Resistance $48.74

Price Targets

$47
$48
A.Upside-2.3%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ADS data center customer concentration. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.92. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.77 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $46.92. Stop-loss: $46.92.

What are the risks of investing in NI?

Concentration risk — Customer: ADS data center customer concentration; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away).

Is NI overvalued or undervalued?

NiSource Inc trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 21.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NI?

24 analysts cover NI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $51.

What does NiSource Inc do?NiSource is a regulated energy holding company serving approximately 3.8 million gas and electric customers across six...

NiSource is a regulated energy holding company serving approximately 3.8 million gas and electric customers across six states through two segments: Columbia Operations (gas) and NIPSCO Operations (gas and electric). Revenue derives substantially from rate-regulated utility operations, with a growing data center supply agreement (ADS Contract) via subsidiary GenCo.

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