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NINiSource IncSell5.2·$47.69+1.02%
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NiSource Inc (NI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.69 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

NiSource is a regulated energy holding company serving approximately 3.8 million natural gas and electric customers across six states through Columbia Operations (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland) and NIPSCO Operations (northern Indiana). Revenue is substantially... Read more

$47.69-1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#7 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-6.90%
IncomeYield2.54%(5y avg 3.19%)Payout56.72%sustainable
Stop $46.01Target $47.09(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$51.36+7.7%14 analysts
$47.09our TP
$47.69price
$51.36mean
$43
$56

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.69 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NiSource Inc

About NiSource Inc

NiSource's two fully regulated subsidiaries serve 3.8 million customers in six states: Columbia Operations distributes natural gas to about 2.4 million customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland, while NIPSCO provides gas and electric service to roughly 1.4 million customers in northern Indiana. State commissions have authorized ROEs of 9.60% (Columbia of Ohio) to 10.00% (Columbia of Pennsylvania) across recent rate cases, with NIPSCO Electric's Step 1 rates taking effect in July 2025. NIPSCO's total generation capacity stands at 3,967 MW spanning coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and storage.

Both Columbia Operations and NIPSCO earn revenue through cost-of-service tariffs with gas cost adjustment clauses (GCAs), fuel adjustment clauses (FACs for electric), and weather normalization mechanisms that partially decouple revenues from consumption volumes. Columbia of Ohio uses a straight fixed-variable rate design that recovers fixed costs through fixed charges; Columbia of Maryland and Columbia of Virginia have regulatory approval for weather and revenue normalization adjustments. In September 2025, NiSource executed the ADS Contract under which NIPSCO will procure power from new subsidiary GenCo to supply a data center customer; GenCo plans to develop 400 MW of battery storage and two 1,300 MW combined-cycle gas turbines expected online between 2028 and 2032. Coal retirement is also underway: R.M. Schahfer's coal units (722 MW) were subject to a December 2025 emergency order from the U.S. Secretary of Energy to remain in service through March 23, 2026, while the Michigan City coal facility (455 MW) is scheduled to retire by end of 2028.

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NiSource's partnership with ADS creates a customer concentration exposure the 10-K explicitly calls a standalone risk category. If construction of the two 1,300 MW CCGTs or the 400 MW battery storage system is delayed, or if MISO capacity accreditation rules change to reduce the value of the constructed resources, the company would bear initial capital costs while ADS cost-sharing only materializes over an extended recovery period. The ADS Contract's return structure differs from NIPSCO's traditional regulated utility model, and cost overruns under the EPC contracts could reduce returns below the regulated baseline that NiSource's other capital projects are designed to earn.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

From NiSource Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.5
P/E (Fwd)21.0
Mkt Cap$22.6B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn14.1%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.55
Dividend2.54%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV104%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.09Resistance $48.05

Price Targets

$46
$47
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.69 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.01. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.09 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $46.01. Stop-loss: $46.01.

What are the risks of investing in NI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is NI overvalued or undervalued?

NiSource Inc trades at a P/E of 23.5 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NI?

24 analysts cover NI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $51.

What does NiSource Inc do?NiSource is a regulated energy holding company serving approximately 3.8 million natural gas and electric customers...

NiSource is a regulated energy holding company serving approximately 3.8 million natural gas and electric customers across six states through Columbia Operations (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland) and NIPSCO Operations (northern Indiana). Revenue is substantially all rate-regulated; it also executed the ADS Contract in 2025 for customized electric service to a data center customer through its GenCo subsidiary. NiSource derives substantially all revenues and earnings from its regulated utility subsidiaries.

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